We’ve seen how the merge shaped up, with an overwhelming majority taking charge. So this should be easy to predict, right? Wait… we should never, EVER suggest ANYTHING is easy predict ever again.

Next Boot Predictions

Andy: Even though I’m having trouble figuring out how it could happen when this is so obviously a boot that should be split among Jay and Taylor to get rid of Jay’s suspected idol, I’m still fairly convinced that the edit is pointing toward an Adam boot. Maybe it really is something as simple as the uncomplicated Gen Xers fearing the unfair nature of his “advantage” teaming up with the now much-less scary Tri-Force (hey! There finally is only three of them) to get rid of it before it could hurt them. Especially since we’ve already seen that Jessica and Ken are weary of Adam as a player.

John: Taylor is my boot pick mostly because he’s an easy target. I don’t think it’s certain that he goes, but I also don’t know how valuable he would be as an addition to someone else’s voting bloc- particularly after he demonstrates his loose lips by telling everyone about Adam’s hidden (dis)advantage.

Matt: So this week I am torn between two options based on what the narrative of the season is. On the one hand is Taylor, the douche bro who seems so confident in his ability to ride out any storm, who has been betrayed by Adam twice now and whose days seem numbered. On the other hand is Adam, someone who the show pushed heavily this week as shifty and not trusted by any of his allies, let alone his enemies. Adam is painting a big target on his back and the only thing that seems likely to save him in the end is that he has an idol. Of course, an idol wouldn’t matter if he gets blindsided. I think that Adam is the target here, I think Jay and Taylor paint him as a rat and untrustworthy and they lure in some of the other floaters. But I also think Adam is alerted to this by his allies and he plays his idol. And I think Adam takes out Taylor with the idol because he finally realizes that relationship is irreparably burned.

Mark: I called it last week for once, so obviously everyone should listen to me. Even though Adam is going to catch more flack for being a bad and frantic player, I think the importance of taking out the Tri-bro-ce will overshadow it. The majority alliance has enough permutations to agree on this. Thus, if Taylor gets immunity and Jay uses an idol, that means that poor Will will get schooled. (Cheer up buddy, there’s milk in Ponderosa).

Emma: I’m going to keep saying Taylor until it comes true. Plus Jay has an idol, so there’s that. I see the arguments for Will and Adam as well, and I think they’re valid. I’m still going with Taylor though. But whatever, as long as it’s a man, I’ll be happy. Please be a man, omg.

	Andy	John	Matt	Mark	Emma	Readers
First Boot	Jessica	CeCe	CeCe	Jessica	Rachel	Sunday
Second Boot	Figgy	Figgy	Figgy	Figgy	Figgy	Figgy
Third Boot	Lucy	Paul	Paul	Bret	Paul	Paul
Fourth Boot	Lucy	Lucy	Lucy	Lucy	CeCe	Lucy
Fifth Boot	Figgy	CeCe	CeCe	Jessica	Taylor	CeCe
Sixth Boot	Figgy	Taylor	Figgy	Jessica	Figgy	Taylor
Seventh Boot	Bret	Bret	Sunday	Bret	Bret	Bret
Eighth Boot	Chris	Taylor	Chris	Michelle	Jay	Taylor
Ninth Out	Adam	Taylor	Taylor	Will	Taylor
Score

Updated Winner Predictions

Andy: You might think that his recent string of quieter episodes has slowed down the Ken winner’s edit, but I actually think it might be a good thing. The only way a perfect man who looks like he’s chiseled from granite, is a tremendous athlete, and spends his spare time helping the homeless with the daughter he raises himself is getting anywhere NEAR the end is if he can lay low and let other targets jump ahead of him. WHICH IS SOMEHOW HAPPENING.

Meanwhile, beautiful Ken is hanging back, picking up more strays (as shown in this week’s Secret Scene), the type of alliance that would make it easier for him to make an immunity run down the stretch. Now, I understand the argument that the David actually seems to be the better player of the duo. I just don’t think it’ll matter for the jury. It’s not like we don’t have precedent of a duo where the handsome, charming half destroyed his strategic partner in the finals.

John:  Adam remains my winner pick mostly because no individual has jumped out as being a clear leader in the race right now. I may as well just stick to my original prediction in case he manages to course-correct and salvage his game, so I can claim that I was #TeamAdam all along- even though I’m clearly all aboard the Zeke train now that Michaela is gone.

Matt: I am torn here, especially because the merge is a lot more chaotic than we might realize. As Andy has pointed out (in staff Slack chats, not publicly), the remaining 12 break neatly into four groups of 3 (Jay, Taylor, Will; Ken, David, Jessica; Chris, Bret, Sunday; and Adam, Hannah, Zeke), which means I don’t think there is a strong majority group at the moment that actually trusts each other, and isn’t likely to be at any time soon. So, instead, I am left with reading the story that I think the show is trying to tell. And to me that is the story of David and Ken.

And here is my dilemma. I cannot tell if the story being told is how David grows from being the overactive buffoon into the cunning game player who schemes his way to the top and everyone respects the growth he has undergone, or if his story is of the game player who alienates everyone he votes out. Meanwhile, for Ken, I cannot tell if he is the pretty but little-liked finalist who will reach the end playing an old school game that garners no votes, or if he is the charismatic misfit leader who when he reaches the end is respected by those on both side of the generation gap and is going up against those who have made more enemies.

But this is what I believe will definitely happen: Ken and David and Jessica will be a core three that become kingmakers while the others fight among themselves. They will probably end up siding with the Zeke group and taking control of the game and voting out both sides. In the end, they will be the two primary contenders. And my prediction right now is that David wins. He has already displayed a remarkable ability to smooth over offense, and I think this is a legit skill and a necessary one to win. But more simply, I just think this is the season and story of David. And I think it is that because he is our winner. But god if Ken wins, I will forever kick myself for changing my preseason pick

Mark: Wow, was I wrong about Taylor. He’s not Fabio 2.0. He’s Drew Christy without the badassery. He or Jay may stick around due to having an idol or being goats, but neither will make it to the end. Nor will some of the quieter Gen-Xers like Chris, Bret, and Sunday.

The remainders are divided into smaller chunks. Adam/Hannah/Zeke, David/Ken/Jessica. I think that Jessica has a chance to actually win some immunities and make it to Day 36 (and use her advantage). Hannah’s goofball behavior with a hint of strategy screams Tai-like goat to me. Adam is playing with fire—his own.

People say that David is getting the growth arc. The Cochran South Pacific arc. But what if he’s getting the full Cochran arc—including Caramoan? This is a guy who is tight with multiple people (Zeke, Ken, Hannah), who was shown to get his way with the merge vote, and who’s just bad enough at challenges to not be an immunity threat. He still has an idol, and can take any mutation of those three to the end. And if Zeke burns any of his fellow Millennials along the way, well, look who has 4 Gen-X’ers on the jury. Boom, David wins a tight vote. Crazier things have happened at a voting booth in 2016…

Emma: I’m reluctant to change a winner pick that isn’t drawing dead, due to the prediction tiebreaker rule. So even though the prospect of him winning seems a little too good to be true, I’m going to stick with Zeke. I’d rather be wrong here, than change it and have him win.

	Andy	John	Matt	Mark	Emma	Readers
Preseason Winner Pick	Taylor	Adam	Ken	Taylor	Zeke	Mari
Mid-season Winner Pick	Ken	Adam	David	David	Zeke

Make your picks below and don’t be afraid to give your explanation in the comments.