Andy and Matt tackle the official Purple Rock Podcast entry for Jury Jeopardy. Them other sites will quake in fear.

If you’ve never read one of these before, the premise is that you choose how each juror (and potential juror) will vote. We’re competing against other sites that are doing the same thing. If you’d like to see how others think this season will play out, you can find their thoughts at Inside Survivor, Rob Has a Podcast, True Dork Times, and A Tribe of One.

Before we get into this, good luck to the competition. May the crushing devastation of losing to us only sting for a short while.

The Rules

For each Juror (and each potential Juror), each website will rank the Final Six by the likelihood of receiving their Jury vote.

Each blogger will score one point for each correct guess, for a possible high score of ten points. A correct guess is determined by the Juror giving their vote to the highest ranking castaway in the Final Three. Once the votes are read, the decision is final, and the person with the most points will be declared the winner of Ghost IslandJury Jeopardy.

Time to Tally the Votes

Andy:
So… last season I was basically only motivated to do this post by people who were claiming that Chrissy had a shot at winning the most votes. Matt, what’s gonna motivate us this season?

Matt:
Oooh ooooh oooh I know this one! Proving all the Laurel defenders wrong!

Andy:
The problem is that we’re getting out ahead of the assignment this time (very unlike us). I haven’t yet been roused by insane “Laurel can win” takes. I mean… those can’t exist, right?

Matt:
The fact that we just mentioned them suggests that yes, they do exist and they are insane as we imagine.

Andy:
Here’s the thing: for our predictions, we will only rank the top four for each of the current jury members, then three for the six people who made the finale, since those are the minimum numbers we need to rank to guarantee that one of our choices will be the winner.

Under those parameters, I’m not sure how often we’ll need to mention Laurel.

Matt:
Only one way to find out. Who should we start with?

Andy:
There’s an order to this, rookie.

The Current Jury

Chris Noble

First juror: Chris Motherfucking Noble

Matt:
WOOOOOOOOOO Chris Noble!

I miss Chris Noble.

Andy:
Remember when this season was awesome?

Matt:
Yes, I do remember Chris Noble.

Andy:
It’s basically been downhill since his rap video.

Matt:
Highlight of the season right there.

Andy:
Alright, here’s what I think Chris Noble’s motivation will be: which choice is most like Chris Noble, and therefore, the most deserving of praise.

Matt:
Makes sense to me. I think Chris Noble’s first pick then is Domenick.

Andy:
Easily. He shook his hand on the way out; name checked him on his masterpiece. Dom as his first choice is a lock. I think his second choice is Sebastian. Florida bros run deep.

Matt:
Not Wendell?

Andy:
I know. Weird, right? Am I wrong though?

Matt:
I think so? But those two are his 2 and 3. You agree with that much right?

Andy: 
Of course. But let’s mix this up. I mean, Domenick is gonna be at the end and is going to win, so let’s be bold. 1 Domenick 2 Sebastian 3 Wendell… and 4?

Matt: 
Angel

Andy: 
Yep.

Matt: 
Remember how she almost got voted off for being allied with Chris Noble way early on?

Andy: 
I remember all things Chris Noble. I remember how he kept framing that as an attack on him, which is both an incredibly self-centred thing to do and also 100% correct. As evidenced by the fact that she’s never been a target since.

Matt: 
Correct. So we are going:
1. Domenick 2. Sebastian 3. Wendell 4. Angela

Andy: 
To finish the thought, Chris Noble STILL seems personally stung by Donathan, and Laurel? Yeah, no.

Matt: 
Agreed on both counts.

Domenick > Sebastian > Wendell > Angela

Libby

Andy: 
Next up: Libby

Remember Libby?

Matt: 
…. No?

Andy: 
There’s gonna be a lot of that going around in this article.
Anyway, one of the few things I remember about Libby is that when she was in a tailspin about why she kept getting stray votes, Domenick was the one to extend a life line and tell her to vote Michael. And she did.
Ergo, Domenick was the one she had a relationship with, not Wendell. Domenick is my pick.

Matt: 
That is very well reasoned, and Domenick is also my pick, but for something else entirely

Andy: 
Do tell.
Or… maybe just imply it?

Matt: 
I do not believe that Libby, based on what I know of her interests outside the game, would ever put Wendell first. So Domenick is 1.

Andy: 
I think Donathan is 2. She played the entire game with him and still speaks of him with great affection.

Matt: 
I agree.

Andy: 
You know… when we started, I was expecting to just be choosing between Domenick and Wendell each time. I’m kind of surprising myself here.

Matt: 
I think this will change soon enough. And Wendell is my number 3 here.

Andy: 
I’m fine with that. Sebastian at four?

Matt: 
I honestly have no idea. But sure why not. I can see it. Because it certainly isn’t Laurel

Andy: 
Yeah, I have literally no reason to think she’d vote for anyone but those three.
Interestingly, Libby is the juror LEAST screwed by Laurel. But… she still kinda was.
(Wait… I guess there’s another juror whom I’ve already forgotten that will have that claim).

Matt: 
Laurel actually voted for Libby when she left (though as part of a vote split).

Domenick > Donathan > Wendell > Sebastian

Desiree

Andy: 
Next juror: Desiree

Matt: 
I’ll go first here

Andy: 
Please.

Matt: 
Wendell is her top pick.

Andy: 
Because?

Matt: 
I honestly don’t think it is super clear between him and Domenick for her, but when she tried to rally people against them, she was targeting Wendell. So she sees him as the bigger threat and will reward the person who she tried to get voted out forever ago. I mean, she was actually kinda targeting Kellyn, but Wendell was next on the list I remember.

Andy: 
Do you remember who she went to first to undo the Laurel damage? It was Wendell, right? Although, that might’ve been because he came upon them when she was talking to Laurel.

Matt: 
She talked to both of them. I distinctly remember her telling Dom about it and him kinda reacting in disbelief. And then Dom had that conversation with Kellyn. But yes she first went to Wendell because he came upon them.

Andy: 
Hmmm… inconclusive. In any case, I think agree and I agree that’s close. So Domenick at 2.

Matt: 
Yeah, there is no way they aren’t 1 and 2 for her, but I could see it going either way.

Andy: 
Sebastian at number 3? They played most of the game together. Or is it Angela, whom she counted as a number in her coup plan?

Matt: 
I think this might be Angela because she counted her as a number in her coup plan

Andy: 
Then Sea bass?

Matt: 
Donathan might be 4, after all it wasn’t Donathan that blew up her big plans
And Donathan seemed willing to go along with it.

Andy: 
And could at least say as much at a final tribal.

Matt: 
She might see some of what she was trying to do in Donathan’s recent game too. Since he is trying to throw a monkey wrench in the inevitable.

Andy: 
So here’s the issue: I have no belief at all that one of Domenick and Wendell will not make the final tribal. So all of this is both an empty intellectual exercise and dependent on a set of circumstances that have not yet happened (and will not happen).
So we’re trying to figure out how Des feels at this point in time in the game, when we need to be thinking about what she’d be thinking in a hypothetical where Domdell aren’t there.

Matt: 
If both Domenick and Wendell fail to make the final tribal, I honestly have no idea what is happening anymore.

Andy: 
So, in that hypothetical… who is most likely to get credit for their ouster?

Matt: 
If both Domenick and Wendell aren’t there, then I say it is because Donathan got people to do something. I say Donathan because he has been beating this anti-Domdell drum the longest.

Andy: 
In light of this, I propose a change: 1 Wendell, 2 Dom, 3 Donathan, 4 Sebastian (because it could be his extra vote that proves pivotal).

Matt: 
I’ll allow it, but only because I know you are a huge Sebastian fan

Andy: 
YUGE.

Wendell > Domenick > Donathan > Sebastian

Jenna

Next juror: Jenna

Remember Jenna?

Matt: 
I remember something about Jenna.

Andy: 
Something that probably won’t help us determine her jury picks. Of course, the inside scoop tells us that she’s a lock vote for Sebastian. Just like how he’d never vote her off…. wait

Matt: 
Andy, what have I told you about stalking Survivor contestants social media?

Andy: 
Stick to Instagram?

Matt: 
That’s exactly right. I think Jenna follows the majority, which means she is Domenick in 1st and Wendell in 2nd probably.

Andy: 
Agreed!
Interestingly, SHE’s the juror least screwed by Laurel. But… I also think she’ll follow the majority in blaming her for their woes.

Matt: 
Oh, she was still totally screwed by Laurel.

Andy: 
When Laurel wouldn’t do the Desiree move?

Matt: 
She came into the merge with only three other Malolo and they had a few opportunities to make something happen and Laurel kept being the one to not make a move.

Andy: 
This exercise is another good argument against the idea that someone can bide their time to make their move if they’re not a target (that is, if we’re right). Because while you might stay alive and theoretically have another chance to turn on power players like Dom or Wendell, you’re also losing the respect and favour of the jury the longer you wait.
Ken McNickle finally did turn on David. And no one gave a shit.

Matt: 
Hannah finally turned on David and no one gave a shit.

Andy: 
So even in the unlikely chance Laurel does get rid of both Dom and Wendell (not happening), it’s not gonna make all these jurors feel better. Particularly, when Donathan can just scoop her and say he did it and wanted to do it for days.

Matt: 
Now the real fun question is: does she hold a grudge against Donathan for not playing his idol on her when she tried to vote him out?

Andy: 
Absolutely. Sea bass at number three.
Then Donathan in the hypothetical “he took them out” scenario.

Matt: 
Agreed on both counts.

Domenick > Wendell > Sebastian > Donathan

Michael

 

Matt: 
So move on to Michael?

Andy: 
Correct. Man, I legit don’t know how he chooses between Domdell.
This I can say with certainty: he’s a no on both Laurel and Donathan.

Matt: 
Totally agree. I think he might be a Wendell. I don’t have a lot of rationale for why I think that, that is just the way my gut is leaning.

Andy: 
I think Domenick. Do not trust your gut. It’s ill advised this season.
Domenick brought Michael into the Desiree vote. Which is… something to lean on for this exercise?
Also… we think Libby is a Domenick vote.

Matt: 
I guess? But let us consider this: Do you think Domenick would beat Wendell in a landslide?

Andy: 
I’m starting to?
I’m guessing you’re not.

Matt: 
See I really don’t
But I also haven’t looked too far ahead.

Andy: 
Shit… we’re gonna win or lose this thing based on trying to figure out which Malolos had the better relationship with the two front runners they were never with.

Matt: 
If only the show had edited the invisible people to show us exactly what we need to win this game!

Andy: 
I’m actually more sure on the invisibles than Michael.
What’s the Wendell/Dom count so far?

Matt: 
I think we only have Desiree for Wendell.
So 3-1.

Andy: 
Hmm… let’s ask another PRPer to break this tie.

Matt: 
Agreed.

Emily: 
Wendell

Matt: 
Because…

Emily: 
Mostly gut, but he targeted him over Dom even when Dom didn’t have immunity, so I think he sees Wendell as the bigger threat

Andy: 
And… Emma is now booted from the Slack channel.
Alright. 1 Wendell, 2 Domenick, 3… Sebastian?

Matt: 
Who were we even talking about again? I was waiting for Emma to answer for so long I totally forgot.

Andy: 
The 18-year-old handsome dude. I say Sebastian because they were on the “cursed” Malolo together. And he’s not Laurel or Donathan, who Michael is STILL seething at.
And by “still” I mean today, May 17, 2018.

Matt: 
Yeah makes as much sense as anyone else. I’m fine with Sebastian at three

Andy: 
Then Angela at four?

Matt: 
Yup

Wendell > Domenick > Sebastian > Angela

Kellyn

Andy: 
Next is our last pre-finale juror… Kellyn

Matt: 
Right Kellyn. Kellyn is definitely a game respects game juror right?

Andy: 
Probably enough of one. I think she’d more likely to vote for someone whose game she respects than an erstwhile ally (like Angela, for instance).

Matt: 
Agreed.

Andy: 
And I think she’ll respect Domenick’s game more than Wendell’s. Because he can claim the Bradley boot (a move, btw, that was almost universally derided as “unstrategic” by most internet analysts when in actuality may have been the most significant move of the season for the winner of the season. Because there’s nothing fans like to deride more than someone doing the non-obvious choice).

Matt: 
Grind those axes.

Andy:

Matt: 
I agree though, she is Dom in 1st, and I point to the same moment for her because it is where he made a move that Wendell didn’t and it substantially helped his game. I think Dom will know to mention that move at Final Tribal too.
But Wendell is totally 2nd right?

Andy: 
Yes. Totally. And using our “if Domdell aren’t in the final tribal, then who was most likely to be granted credit for it” rubric, I have Donathan at three.

Matt: 
I agree with that.
If nothing else Kellyn might respect his willingness to stir shit up.
Okay, this is crazy… but I actually think Laurel might be 4 here.

Andy: 
…explain.

Matt: 
I think in the scenario where the final three is Laurel, Angela and Sebastian that someone had to make a move. Kellyn would never, ever, ever credit Sebastian with a move because he seems like a dope. Angela has been left out of everything this season.
I think Laurel has to be 4th here.

Andy: 
Interesting. I disagree for two reasons: 1) Kellyn apparently listed Sebastian as her second biggest ally in a bonus scene at the second swap (behind Bradley) and 2) my main interest in doing this entire exercise is to never list Laurel as a potential vote getter.

Matt: 
Oh there was a bonus scene? Fuck Sebastian has to be 4th then. Everyone knows the real dirt is there

Andy: 
Indeed. Only the people who watch the bonus scene truly know what’s going down.

Matt: 
This is what I always say. Okay, so Sebastian is 4th, you convinced me.
Now we move to the remaining 6.

Domenick > Wendell > Donathan > Sebastian

Angela

Andy: 
We shall do them in alphabetical order. Phrasing.

First up: Angela

Matt: 
Remember we only need three for Angela.

Andy: 
Interestingly… Angela SHOULD have an axe to grind for both Domenick and Wendell.

Matt: 
Yeah but she won’t.

Andy: 
I… have no way of anticipating Angela’s reaction on the jury. None.
Now, before anyone jumps in with a “SEE?!? This proves the editor’s did a bad job this season?!?” argument… I will counter with “it doesn’t matter tho”. Survivor doesn’t need to cater its storytelling in order to help me better write a predictive blog post.

Matt: 
Angela’s reaction this entire game has seemed to be feint in the direction of making a move and then immediately run back to the majority and the power players. So I say Angela feints in the direction of voting for the third place finisher, but actually votes for the winner.
Which is probably Domenick.

Andy: 
Is almost certainly Domenick. Wendell at number two?

Matt: 
Yup.
Because if it isn’t Domenick it is Wendell. So who is Angela’s third?
Remember: this is a final tribal of Donathan, Laurel and Sebastian.

Andy: 
Sebastian? Why do I keep predicting Sebastian?

Matt: 
I agree that it is Sebastian and you keep predicting Sebastian because you love the dude.

Andy: 
Obviously. He is the real robb.ed edit g.oddess.

Matt: 
But here I think it is just that Angela won’t criticize Sebastian sitting back and doing nothing and then lucking into a fortuitous final three.

Andy: 
Right. Game recognize game.

Matt: 
Always.

Domenick > Wendell > Sebastian

Domenick

Matt: 
So Domenick

Andy: 
Will not be in the jury.

Matt: 
But we are legally obligated to do this.

Andy: 
Lawyered.

Matt: 
It is what I do
1. Wendell (no explanation necessary)

Andy: 
2. Laurel… oh no I’m breaking my vow!

Matt: 
This is a travesty!

Andy: 
I’m not happy about it, although I do like the irony of the only people who might vote for her being the people she refuses to give the opportunity to.

Matt: 
Mmmmm… yes that does rescue the situation.
So I’ll allow it

Andy: 
Wait… by picking Laurel as second, we’re assuming a reality in which she is primarily responsible for taking out both he and Wendell.
I cannot allow this.

2 Donathan

Matt: 
3. Donathan. Yes, I know he hates Donathan now, but I just really cannot see him voting for Angela or Sebastian.
Oh wait we are out on Laurel now? FUCK YES Donathan in 2!

Andy: 
Sebastian at three. Whew, that was close.

Matt: 
Oh yeah makes much more sense now. Flawless logic, really.

Wendell > Donathan > Sebastian

Donathan

Andy: 
Next: Donathan
Now… what’s the likelihood that Donathan makes the jury with both Wendell and Domenick?

Matt: 
Pretty damn unlikely.

Andy: 
Like, so unlikely that we don’t even have to entertain the notion of him voting for Laurel… right?

Matt: 
I guess that is a scenario where Donathan somehow gets out both those guys but also gets voted out?
How does that even happen honestly?
Sneak attack at 6, somehow an idol is not played.
Vote for the other at 5 despite them knowing its coming and they don’t play their idol?
Loses fire at 4.

Andy: 
The only way would be for one of W/D to play an idol at 6 when they didn’t have to, and the guy who got voted out DID have to.
Then at 5, the remaining guy DOESN’T have an idol to play. Also, W/D cannot win either of those immunities.
Then at 4, Sebastian or Angela wins immunity, and takes the other to the end.
Then Laurel beats Donathan at fire.
Wait, I suppose W/D could lose fire making after Donathan was voted out at five. That’s another path.

Matt: 
Here is the problem with that scenario and why he won’t vote for Laurel: because he doesn’t need Laurel to flip the game at 6. He can do it with Sebastian’s extra vote and Angela. And Donathan is gonna be bitter at Laurel for not flipping with him the billion other times they had a chance.

Andy: 
TBH, Donathan still seems bitter at Laurel for not flipping with him the billion other times they had a chance. So… let’s take him at his word that Dom is his first choice, then Wendell, then Sebastian, whose extra vote helped take one of them out.

Matt: 
I like it! Plus it continues your bizarre love affair with Sebastian. I guess this explains why John is your co-host, because you just love Floridians so much.

Andy: 
For anyone who attempts to undermine this whole post based on all the odd Sebastian love: I don’t think he’ll actually get votes (or at least not any more than a random throwaway). What I’m saying is that there are only two people who will.

Domenick > Wendell > Sebastian

Laurel

Andy: 
Speaking of which… Laurel!

Matt: 
Laurel has said who her two favorites are!

Andy: 
I might be more confident about Laurel not making the jury than I am Domenick.

Matt: 
I would totally agree with that. Laurel is a 100% lock for FTC.

Andy: 
Is there any chance she votes for Donathan over those two?

Matt: 
No chance. Laurel has told us her true loyalty time and time again.

Andy: 
Agreed. 1 Wendell 2 Dom 3 Donathan

Matt: 
Yup.
And Wendell 1 because we were shown that the first bond she had with these two was with Wendell.

Andy: 
Yeah, he seems more to be her first point of contact.

Matt: 
Agreed.

Andy: 
Frankly, a lot of her inaction has seemed to boil down to “we have to target Wendell because Dom is either A) immune or B) the most likely idol holder” only for her to be all “but I LIKE Wendell”.

Matt: 
YUP.

Andy: 
I mean… she wouldn’t turn on him because he should’ve beaten her in a challenge.
Laurel is the worst.

Matt: 
Just the fucking worst.

Andy: 
It’s gonna be a crime that she won’t be mentioned enough in the “worst Survivor players ever” discussion, despite all the work she put in to earn that recognition.

Matt: 
She worked hard to squander every opportunity that came her way to flip the game and actually wind up on top and she is going to be really proud of that 3rd place finish.

Wendell > Sebastian > Donathan

Sebastian

Andy: 
On to my apparent new favourite player of the season, Sebastian. Domenick gave him his nickname (that it wasn’t clear he liked), Wendell gave him a shell. Tough call.

Matt: 
It will truly be a shame if Sebastian is on the jury, because that means we are not getting winner Sebastian as apparently, you think is likely.

Andy: 
The Sea Bass edit is there if you’re looking for it.
So we go with the order Sebastian chose reward partners: Domenick, Wendell, Donathan? Or do we think the family visit hierarchy influenced that?

Matt: 
No, I think Sebastian is not one to hide his preference order. So if he chose them in that order, that is the order he prefers them.

Andy: 
What fishing metaphor will he use when asking them a question?

Matt: 
What did you bait your hook with?
No that makes too much sense. It needs to be something that is fishing related, but also makes no sense.
You threw the hook in the water and it hooked a tire, but that tire became a whale and you reeled in the big one.

Andy: 
It is foolish of us to presume to understand the inner workings of his mind.

Domenick > Wendell > Donathan

Wendell

Andy: 
Let’s finish off the jury (phrasing) with Wendell.

Matt: 
I am sure a lot of people would like to finish off Wendell (phrasing).

Andy: 
Who is his second choice after Domenick?

Matt: 
Would he consider Laurel?

Andy: 
Sigh. Yeah, he would. In fact, if he is uncharacteristically salty the way that some people surprisingly are (re: Cydney), he might consider her over Domenick.

Matt: 
Right so Laurel 1?

Andy: 
Hmmm… so I guess a question here is what do we think is more likely, Wendell making the finals or Domenick taking him out?

Matt: 
Well if we are answering this for Wendell, I guess he doesn’t make the finals and Domenick took him out.

Andy: 
So, if Domenick does it before the final four, does that mean that Laurel helped vote Wendell out? Maybe because Dom was immune at final five?

Matt: 
I don’t see any way that Wendell gets voted out and Laurel isn’t one of the votes on him.

Andy: 
How do we think he reacts to her betrayal?

Matt: 
Hey you said it above, he seems the salty type

Andy: 
He certainly did with Donathan.

Matt: 
And don’t you think he’ll take it harder being betrayed by someone he considers a follower, rather than a partner?

Andy: 
I think we cracked it: 1 Domenick, 2 Sebastian, 3 Angela.

Matt: 
I see no other possibility.

Domenick > Sebastian > Angela

---

Andy: 
Alright, so what’s our Dom/Wendell first place vote split?

Matt: 
We just count up the first place votes right?

Andy: 
Let’s do that for this.

Matt: 
I think that is 8-4 in favor of Domenick. It also counts both of them.
Wait… wasn’t this a 13 player merge? Did we… forget someone?

Andy: 
Did someone lose his or her vote at Ghost Island?

Matt: 
That must be it. Surely, we wouldn’t have forgotten an entire player that was on this season.

Andy: 
Alright, time for our tie breaker, where we guess the final jury vote. This is tough, because we have to decide if we’re going Dom/Wendell, Dom no Wendell, or Wendell no Dom.
If we go with a Dom, Wendell, Laurel final three, it’s 7-2. If no Wendell, it’s 9-0.
I like hedging with 7-2, in case we’re wrong on the odd stray vote.

Matt: 
We are really putting my idea that this won’t be a blowout to the test. Because I do think the most likely final three is Dom, Wendell, Laurel. But I think the final margin will have Wendell with three votes.

Andy: 
Sure, let’s go with that. I’m fine with it not matching up exactly with what we have ahead. I’m arrogant, but not arrogant enough to believe that we just nailed every single pick. Sound good?

Matt: 
We should stick to our guns though. 7-2 and we just kinda wish there was some way to get Wendell to 3.

Andy: 
It feels like there should be a way for him to get there, right?

Matt: 
Should be, but clearly there isn’t.

Andy: 
Follow me for a second. This is a crazy hypothetical, but what if there was another juror that we’re missing?

Matt: 
I thought we already dismissed that possibility?

Andy: 
This is blue-sky thinking.

Matt: 
Okay, I’m listening.

Andy: 
So let’s say that there’s one more random juror. And her choices were ranked as such: 1 Wendell, 2 Domenick, 3 Angela, 4 Sebastian.
That gets Wendell to 3.

Matt: 
I mean, that is how I would rank a random juror were there to be one.

Hypothetical Juror X

Andy: 
Let’s do it then. Hypothetical juror X: 1 Wendell, 2 Domenick, 3 Angela, 4 Sebastian.
This is some insane fan fiction. But I’ll allow it.

Wendell > Domenick > Angela > Sebastian

Tiebreaker

So our tiebreaker is 7-3-0.

Matt: 
Sounds right!