Time to get back into the predictions game. And remember: Rob and Sandra are NOT voting. Are NOT playing. And can NOT be voted out.

 

(Or CAN they?)

Staff Predictions

Andy

Even though he doesn’t seem to take the loss of Ronnie well, I’m still not convinced Aaron’s tribe would look to get rid of him after back-to-back losses. Losing twice tends to focus people on “keeping the tribe strong” (not always tho. It could also focus you on “get rid of people before the inevitable swap”). So if that’s how it goes, the people who sided with the Elaine/Tom/Vince trio might make a different decision this time. Let’s say they do and pick Vince, since his name already came up.

On Taiko, it looked like Jason was in trouble in the first three days, but I’ve seen this bit too many times to think that the target will stay on him. Instead, what that story might have been about more was Noura‘s attempt at defending him, which could move the target on to her.

Brad

Orange Tribe: I can buy that Tom/Vince/Elaine are a solid enough alliance, but here’s the thing: as strong or weak as that trio is, I don’t think there’s a closer (trust) cluster of folks on that tribe. So let’s say that they have a head start on building a majority bloc. In the scenario where Orange loses again, the classic “keep the tribe strong” argument will be broken out, and Aaron and Dean will be kept around. This will also rule out Missy and Elizabeth. This leaves two people, so let’s say that Karishma gets booted this week.

Purple: Have I made it clear enough that I’m betting on Purple? This tribe will not be going to Tribal. But for the sake of the exercise, I need to come up with a name. Since Purple is not going to Tribal, this can get as crazy as possible. I’m going to take the NTOS at face value and say that Noura goes off the deep end and starts grating on her tribemates. Someone will then latch onto her and start goat-herding on Day 5. This person will use Noura’s antics as a smokescreen to blindside “a big threat,” which will send Ginger Tommy home.

Emma

Purple: I’m going to keep it simple and follow the guiding hand of the preview. Noura seems to be agitated, and as a bonus she was the only one siding with Jason in the premiere. Seeing an alpha-male type getting booted from the other tribe might spook the guys here, so they’ll be sure to make Noura look like the only option to vote out.

Orange: This is tricky because the one guy on the outs is also easily the strongest. If they lose another challenge, are they willing to take that risk? However, if the women want to stick together, they don’t really have another option since Tom and Vince are so clearly on their side and Dean doesn’t actually exist. Plus, if they do go to tribal again, then Aaron clearly isn’t helping them win, so everyone votes him out.

John

It’s a profoundly terrible idea to ever be overly optimistic about Survivor players breaking with traditional voting priorities. Luckily, I’m a fan of profoundly terrible ideas (e.g., this podcast). Thus, I have decided to ignore dozens of seasons of evidence that it won’t happen and chosen to pick two men as potential second boots: Aaron and Dan. The Aaron prediction is so stupid that I’ve decided it’s brilliant. (It is not.)

Mark

Orange tribe: After that satisfying boot, I can’t help but think that Ronnie’s bro-in-waiting is in trouble. Let’s say Aaron.

Purple tribe: I like a lot of people on this tribe, but the previews all say that Noura’s doesn’t just make her exes uncomfortable, she rubs her tribe the wrong way too! That’s enough to get you booted this early on.

Matt

Lairo: I don’t think they are gonna Aaron out. It’s one thing to lose Ronny, but the first challenge required a decent amount of strength, and getting rid of Aaron too would seem to really hamper you. I also think the alliance that was formed is a little softer than it seems. But I also don’t think its gonna be a woman. So if not Aaron that leaves Vince, Tom and Dean. Which probably suggests Vince would go home of those three. So Vince it is.

Vokai: Okay, the preview gave away who gets to meet Sandra and Rob this week, so if you don’t want to know who that is skip ahead because that is who I’m predicting is going home. [Editor’s note: I’m not posting Matt’s prediction, but I do have logged for next week].Basically I think that person goes to the island, people get spooked about them having an idol or advantage and just vote them out.

	Andy	Brad	Emma	John	Mark	Matt	Readers
Lairo 2nd Boot	Vince	Karishma	Aaron	Aaron	Aaron	Vince
Vokai 2nd Boot	Noura	Tommy	Noura	Dan	Noura

Your Turn

Time to vote for the next person to probably not leave the show.