Time to predict what fresh hell awaits us in the next two episodes of Survivor: Game Changers.

Back to predicting for real. Back to keeping score.

Boot Predictions

Andy: At the merge, the original Mana tribe will be outnumbered 9-4. Given that EVERY. SINGLE. POST-SWAP VOTE this season has been along original tribal lines, I don’t see a reason for that to change with the first post-merge vote. So then it becomes a matter of picking which of those four would most likely be targeted: Hali is out, as she’s spent the most time with original Nukus and she’s not particularly threatening right now. Troy is out because we’ve already seen two scenes of him bonding with original Nukus (Sarah and Brad), although it would be hilarious to see him go home with an idol in his pants (that is, if it IS an idol and he’s not just happy to see us). That leaves Michaela and Aubry, and honestly, both are as likely as the other and present similar threat levels. But we saw Aubry make some inroads that she could potentially use in the post-merge scramble. We have not seen the same from Michaela.

Now I’m thinking that Aubry should be next with everyone cluing in to the threat of the Kaoh Rong three. But I said Ozzy on the podcast, so I’ll stick with that. Because his story every other episode so far has been “Ozzy is a threat, we should maybe take him out”. Eventually, the right person will say that to the right group of people. Why not now?

John: My predictions are based entirely around the idea that this season will do its best to get rid of the most familiar names. Cirie and Ozzy are the two biggest names left, and despite Cirie’s epic challenge run to get here (she was the only one to stay immune for the entire pre-merge portion of the game!) I don’t know if she’s likely to win individual immunity. Ozzy, on the other hand, might. Thus, Cirie goes home first.

The second immunity challenge will probably be something like “hold this massive pole for as long as you can”, and since Troy has an unfair advantage- years of experience doing exactly that- he’ll win immunity. Thus, Ozzy will be vulnerable. Unable to find an immunity idol, he’ll go home.

Emma: In my pre-season post about Cirie, I said the most likely scenario was that she’d be the merge boot. This is also a season where everything is terrible, and it all hurts, so I have no choice than to stick with that prediction: an underedited Cirie who is voted out as soon as she should get to shine. She’s never gone to tribal council, so none of her potential alliances have actually been established in the one place where trust is really shown. Finally given the opportunity to play, she may go too hard and everyone decides they’re better off without her. They are wrong.

It’s been reported that this is the first season where two black women made the merge. But again, bad things happen this season. The only good thing was when Caleb got voted out. So naturally, after losing Cirie, we will also lose Michaela, who doesn’t seem to have any true allies and gets on a lot of people’s nerves. At least we can expect some sweet jury faces.

Mark: Merge time! With all the talk of Ozzy being a threat lately, I think the merge is the perfect time to take him out. “But what if he wins?” you ask. With the people who are left, do you really think the challenge department steers hard into the kinds of challenges he excels at? Nope. Later, Ozzy. (Editor’s note: Yes? Like, especially with this cast… wouldn’t they want to preserve some of the remaining star power? Also: aren’t the “kinds of challenges” Ozzy excels at called “challenges”?)

After that, I have no clue. Maybe Hali tries to be a double agent between original Mana and original Nuku and Brad takes her out. He could never trust her, and now he has two lackeys in Aubry and Cirie. Buh bye, blue eyes.

Matt: Merge time and if there is one theme this season: it is that the show must slay our faves. But there is another subplot at work here! For the first time ever (yes ever) two African-American women made the merge. And if I know one thing about Survivor, I know that that cannot be allowed. So Michaela goes first, because the old tribal lines will hold for one more vote and she seems to be the person who has the fewest connections on the other side. Also she is a bit of a challenge threat. And then to add insult to injury Cirie goes home second. Why? Because everyone is terrified of Cirie and waiting to oust her. (Note: I could also see Ozzy going at either vote here as no one wants to see him win out, and I do think he is not long for the game, but look when I have the chance to predict a logical terrible outcome, I just have to do it).

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	Andy	John	Emma	Mark	Matt	Readers
First or Second Boot	Aubry	Ciera	Ciera	Ciera	Ciera	Ciera
Third Out	JT	Debbie	Cirie	JT	Cirie	JT
Fourth Out	JT	Sandra	Sandra	Sandra	Varner	JT
Fifth Out	JT	Sandra	JT	JT	JT	JT
Sixth Out	Debbie	Debbie	Sarah	Aubry	Ozzy	Debbie
Seventh Out	Varner		Tai	Varner	Ozzy
Eighth Boot	Michaela	Cirie	Cirie	Ozzy	Michaela
Ninth Boot	Ozzy	Ozzy	Michaela	Hali	Cirie
Score
Preseason Winner Pick	Malcolm	Tony	Malcolm	Andrea	Andrea	Malcolm

*Reminder: Scores from the seventh episode do not count due to spoilers.

Time to make your picks. And feel free to track how your personal picks do throughout the year. I won’t make mention of it or anything, but you can still feel good about it.

Reminder: FUCK. YO. SPOILERS.