After skipping doing this the first week, thereby failing to give you all the chance to not predict one of the most unpredictable events in Survivor history. Sorry.

Staff Predictions

Andy

I sincerely believe that if the Davids had gone to tribal last week, Nick would’ve been voted out. I also (sadly) believe that certain people are always going to get a second chance and Nick fits the profile of that kind of person. Instead, if they lose their second challenge in a row, they’ll look around for a woman to blame it on and I’m fairly randomly going to pick Lyrsa to be that someone.

Other people, on the other hand, rarely get second chances. Like, Natalie, for example. Even if she hadn’t made an awful first impression, it’s really not hard to see that tribe pin a loss on her. They might even be right.

Fuck man. I didn’t mean to be this depressing this early.

Brad

If the Goliath idol was still in play, I could see Mike being the boot here. But Dan, Kara, and Natalia know that he doesn’t have it, and that’s enough to tip this one to Natalie.

I want Nick gone. He reminds me of Jimmy McGill in the worst ways. But I think he’ll evade going home this week, particularly by sacrificing the long game. I can easily see an all-female alliance (plus maybe Christian if Gabby brings him in) forming on the David tribe (are there really no tribe names?), and Nick will accelerate that by throwing Carl’s name out to save his own skin. If Carl has a repeat performance where it looks like he can’t hang in the challenges, he’ll be easy trimming as dead weight.

Emma

The Davids will need hard workers more than ever now that Pat is gone, so they will likely stick to their original plan and vote out Nick. Though cynicism would highlight other options, both Lyrsa and Bi have made social connections, while Nick really hasn’t so far.

But cynicism rules on the Goliath tribe, which skews younger, save for a couple of outliers. And we all know how young people get everything handed to them. Anyway, Natalie will be yet another WOC voted out early that can be easily explained away as being voted out for other reasons (a wonderful combination of bossiness and not actually doing much around camp) until you look at the patterns that have emerged in the show’s long history.

John

Goliaths: Natalie. Just predicting based on history until one glorious day I’m proven wrong.

Davids: I get a really inauthentic vibe from Nick, and I’m gonna bet that people that are on his tribe might get the same sense.

Mark

Davids: I can see… bland white boy… Nick (?) going. The show seemed to be building up his troubles at camp, and everyone else looks like they’re getting along.

Goliaths: I mean, it has to be an old or a POC. That’s the rule of pre-merge Survivor. Natalie hasn’t done anything yet except give side-eye to the camera, so she can do that from the voting confessional booth as the credits roll.

Matt

On the Goliath tribe, there seem to be two people on the outs. The first is Mike White, writer of movies my dad loves like School of Rock (I also love this movie, just not as much as my dad). Mike made the classic rookie mistake of thinking people wouldn’t notice you were looking for the idol when you were looking for the idol. The other is Natalie, who is loud, proud and commanding, which is already rubbing a bunch of people the wrong way because no one on Survivor likes being told what to do (especially if you then are not also doing it). Mike is now aware of what he was doing wrong, but I don’t think Natalie has any idea that she is rubbing people the wrong way. For that reason I am predicting she is the one that goes home.

On the David tribe, I have no freaking idea. Nick maybe? He got a lot of story, but I can’t tell whether it was genuine build up for a long arc, or build up for his quick demise. Or maybe it is Jessica because apparently there is a Jessica on this tribe and I have no memory of her. Sure why not Jessica.

	Andy	Brad	Emma	John	Mark	Matt	Readers
David 2nd Out	Lyrsa	Carl	Nick	Nick	Nick	Jessica
Goliath 2nd Out	Natalie	Natalie	Natalie	Natalie	Natalie	Natalie

Your Turn

Time to vote for the first actual boot of the season. Unless you think the ocean did the booting. Which, c’mon man. A man was injured. Show some respect.