One week into the books on Survivor Cambodia, and we’re already in mid-season form with the entire PRP staff getting week one wrong. Our readers got it right*, but now we have some actual evidence to go on, so our incorrect predictions will mean more last week. Also, we hope you liked our chat post last week, because that’s how we’re going to do these for the next little while. Let us know what you think! And remember to vote in this week’s poll.

Ta Keo boot predictions:

Andy: Does the Shirin/Spencer/Kelley alliance stay on its path and take out Terry?

Matt: No it will be Peih-Gee or Abi, but my prediction is Peih-Gee.

Andy: Why Peih-Gee?

Matt: I just thought she was getting a bad edit and it was setting it up for next week. I think the edit was more negative Peih-Gee than just crazy Abi. And going a little meta, I remember the past few seasons using early episodes to set up next boots.

Emma: Really? I didn’t think Peih-Gee came off badly.

Matt: Yeah, I might be on an island with that, I see people saying that Peih-Gee came off well but my impression was that the camera didn’t like her.

Andy: It did during her ocean chat with Varner tho.

Matt: And not during tribal at all when she is more concerned with being scared of a bug than the vote.

Andy: Agreed. I think she might be set up as the backstabber. Which may bode poorly in a swap.

Emma: Wow, I do not remember that happening. There was a bug?

Andy: A big centipede was crawling around during Tribal!

Emma: Damn, maybe I need to cool it with the live tweeting.

John: I think Varner and Peih-Gee swing back to the other side and Abi goes home.

Emma: I think there’s a good chance it’s Terry. With a chance that Peih-Gee and Varner flip back if Abi-Maria gets too Abi.

Andy: Here’s how I see it happening: Shirin/Kelley push HARD for Terry, especially after his comments that didn’t make the air. Peih-Gee will feel really uncomfortable with having Abi on her side, but they’ll ignore that in favour of their pre-game strategy of forming the Babe Brigade. But Varner doesn’t want to burn his other side again, and really didn’t want to this time, but wasn’t going to have a tie. So he and Peih-Gee swing back, possibly with Spencer. So Abi-Maria goes, and Shirin/Kelley are on the outs.

John: I actually wonder if some of that Shirin/Spencer/Wentworth alliance gives in and goes along with voting Abi. Because if keeping her insanity around is going to drive away potential allies, it’s not worth it.

Matt: I think when Abi goes, it is a unanimous vote.

Andy: I could see that. They’re not idiots. But I think they’re REALLY threatened by Terry and put off by him. Plus, they gotta be feeling a bit of a high for getting to dictate the first vote.

John: Terry is easier to target later.

Andy: I do think that Shirin really wants Abi in her group though.

Emma: That and Shirin *does not* like Terry, and I feel like she’s in the driver’s seat for now. We also know Shirin wants him out pre-merge because she does not believe he’ll vote for a woman in the finals.

John: But this would be the second vote. That’s way ahead of the merge.

Emma: I wasn’t done!

Andy: But if they got swapped to different tribes, this could be her last chance.

Emma: Yes, that. And Shirin is smart enough to anticipate a swap. Although the fact it didn’t make the episode gives me pause… that look on Shirin and Kelley’s face in that photo. They might even feel protective of Abi at that point.

Andy: I like where Emma is going here. It fits into my preseason thoughts on Shirin, that her downfall could be one of her more admirable traits: her strong sense of social justice. Which is probably why I’m predicting she falls on the wrong side of the numbers here. Because my predictions are all about putting myself over.

Mark: I think it’s Abi. She doesn’t seem to be cooling it, and I think Varner and Peih Gee are a power couple. Though the fact that they played their hand at Tribal worries me. I’d rather see a subtle duo. So if you piss off PG, and Varner is already uneasy, they go with whoever wants Abi out. But I think Abi, PG, and Terry get votes in Tribal unless something swings.

John: No way three people get votes. Unless it’s an intentional vote split.

Matt: Wait… if Shirin and Kelley really want to keep Abi around, would Kelley play her idol on Abi?

Andy: No chance.

John: Nooooooo.

Emma: No way. Pregame Kelley didn’t even seem to care for Abi. I think she’s with her because Shirin is.

Matt: I don’t think so either. Just a thought I had.

Mark: Woo is the loneliest number. He went with the majority after the last time his allies got booted, so.

Andy: Woo is used to this.

John: It’s the only way Woo has ever known.

Matt: Wouldn’t it be hilarious if Woo flipped to Shirin but Varner and Peih-Gee flipped to the other side and Woo ends up on the losing side again?

Emma: OMG

Mark: OMG please let that happen.

Bayon boot predictions:

Andy: Alright, who goes home if it’s Bayon?

Matt: Unfortunately, it is Stephen. But I don’t think it’s Bayon. If it is, I think this week set up only one Bayon person.

Andy: I agree. Stephen, but I think Ta Keo loses.

Mark: Maybe that’s why he’s blogging? But I don’t think that would work with the perspective. I’m rewatching the premiere now, and I have a Bayon pick: Keith. I think the alpha males will get blown up if they go to Tribal.

Matt: I think Keith is going to cause the eventual downfall of Jeremy, but I don’t think its immediate. I think maybe on the swap

Mark: He’s against yoga, and every time a Joe or a Jeremy (still negative) talked, they cut to a smirking woman. If Stephen jumps to the ladies, that’s 6. Or Fish jumps, it ties, and Tasha flips.

Matt: Are you sure the reaction to Joe was a smirk and not a leer? But either way, I doubt Keith is the target if they go after that alliance. It’s probably Joe or Jeremy.

Mark: Oh, my reasoning for that is the intro and the “who doesn’t have an idol” aspect. Trying to go out on a Fish-immune limb here for the site.

Emma: This might be out there, but I’m going to say Monica. Largely because I don’t want to say Stephen, but also since Jeff said there’s a romance brewing. I’m just assuming that will be Monica and Joe. And who gets targeted when people freak out about a showmance?

The girl. Especially on a tribe that’s actually going to care about tribe strength, of which she has none.

Mark: I still haven’t picked a good Monica replacement. If I need to.

John: Yeah, I think I do too. All of that preseason Monica hype faded pretty quickly.

Mark: Watch us switch and be wrong

John: Exactly.

Emma: Her only confessional was “I’m nervous about getting tree mail because I’m small”. WHILE SHE SITS NEXT TO CIERA.

Matt: I’m not panicking over Monica’s lack of confessionals because no one on that tribe had confessionals.

Andy: The funniest will be if everyone picked Monica to win due to her ability to stay under the radar early in the game, only for everyone to jump off the bandwagon because she’s under the radar super early in the game.

Mark: Hahaha

John: Right. She hasn’t actually done anything different than we predicted.

Andy: She’s doing EXACTLY what we predicted, and it’s making people nervous.

Emma: I also have a theory that people will target her for being the flirty Parvati type, while Kelley, the charming Parvati type, slips under their noses.

Andy: Like, if you want to pick a challenge-weak woman because you don’t want to say Stephen, Ciera is right there. And she VOTED OUT HER MOM!

Emma: Ciera loses her threat appeal now that Vytas is gone. Truthfully, I have no fucking idea who would go home from Bayon because we barely saw them and they’re not going to lose, so I just wanted to pick something interesting.

John: I like how we all just assume Ta Keo is going to lose.

Mark: Ta Keo is. I bet.

John: Oh, I don’t disagree. I just think it’s funny.

Andy: There is a puzzle this week. Watch Peih-Gee throw it.

Matt: That would be amazing!

Mark: Hahaha. “This isn’t Sudoku!”

Emma: …to get rid of Abi. Although to really be on brand, it would be to ditch Terry.

Andy: Does Spencer push a floundering Shirin out of the way?

Predictions

	Andy	John	Emma	Mark	Matt	Readers
First Boot	Abi-Maria	Kelly	Abi-Maria	Spencer	Spencer	Vytas
Bayon Next Boot	Stephen	Monica	Monica	Keith	Stephen	N/A
Ta Keo Next Boot	Abi-Maria	Abi-Maria	Terry	Abi-Maria	Peih-Gee	N/A
Winner Pick	Monica	Varner	Kelley	Monica	Varner	Kelley

Reader poll

So… last week was fun. We’ve already addressed this in comments and on the podcast, but the lopsided selection of Vytas gave the distinct impression that some of the people (not all) voting for him were probably spoiled, especially since some digging suggested that there were readily available spoilers (from CBS themselves) that strongly suggested he was not long for the game. This puts us in a bit of a bind, because we don’t want to set up a mechanism that allows for easily spoiling of results. But we do encourage you to play along with us. So what do we do?

That’ll be up to you. If you’d like us to continue with the polls or not, let us know. Either way, there will be no reader poll for this week, as it’s been indicated that one of the major spoilers is from the third week (thus revealing eliminated players for the first two weeks). We’ll pick this back up (or not) in week three.