Due to rampant spoilers for this week’s elimination, we’ve decided to forgo predictions and instead issue some non-existent hardware after the first five episodes of Survivor Cambodia.

Before we get into this, I suppose I should defend the math on the “Quarter-Season” part of the title. As of this posting, there’s been five episodes. Given that Survivor seasons tend to last 14 episodes, the math doesn’t seem to check out. Even if you include the Reunion as a different episode, that puts us a third of the way through. So why quarter-season? Because there’s 20 castaways this season, and a quarter of them have been eliminated. And because quarter-season sounds better than third-of-the-season. And because we were forced into doing something different because people love going online and posting spoiler information where they shouldn’t.

Survivor Cambodia Quarter-Season MVP

After the first five episodes, who has been the stand out? Much like sports leagues, we left it up to each voter to decide their criteria for MVP: is it the person playing the best game? The one most influencing events? Most essential to their alliance? Creating the best TV? Dominating the edit? Some combination of factors? We picked our own criteria, and so can you.

Andy: For me, it’s still Jeff Varner. It’s closer because he missed one episode, but the sheer volume of entertainment he created through the first four overcomes that imbalance. He was the central figure in the edit from the moment they landed in Cambodia, giving passionate, funny, heart-felt confessionals on what Second Chances meant to him, and by proxy, all of us. Some of the efforts the show has made to push their narratives have been a little forced, but not with him. He was a natural in creating TV. In terms of the game, he was also the driving force behind the action of the first four episodes, be it him deciding to flip on Vytas, push out Shirin, blow up his own alliance by losing his mind at a challenge, and ultimately getting the boot. This won’t end up being the season of Jeff Varner, but it sure has been so far.

John: I assume Varner will be the unanimous choice here. And I don’t want to be the guy who voted for someone else, because it annoyed me when some idiot prevented LeBron James from winning a unanimous NBA MVP. His early-season run was so memorable- filled with overwhelming joy, legitimate emotion, and crazy pre-game alliances- that I won’t be surprised if he ends up as one of the six people that makes the cover image for this season (they generally had six people on the DVD covers; Varner would have to be one of them regardless of his early flame-out).

Emma: Varnerrrrrrrrrrrrrrr. He will likely not be the MVP for the whole season (at least hopefully not), but it’s too early to judge games and positions in my opinion. So for the delicious entertainment he provided, it goes to Varner.

Mark: Going purely off the first four episodes, Varner has to be the MVP. He set the tone of the season, controlled the first two votes, provided narration and entertainment, and best exemplified the Second Chance theme. (Sorry Spencer’s orchestra and Wigles-worthless).

Matt: If you ask me this question again in a few weeks this will change, but the MVP for the first quarter of the season is Jeff Varner from an entertainment point of view. The man gave us an entire season worth of wonderful TV in just 4 episodes. I’ll never forget the Jeff Varner experience. If I was judging from a gameplay perspective I’d probably say Jeremy… but I’m gonna save him for a different category.

Andy	John	Emma	Mark	Matt	Readers
Varner	Varner	Varner	Varner	Varner	Varner

Most Improved Player

Who has made the most significant improvement, either from their previous season or from the beginning of this one, or both?

Andy: Kelley Wentworth was easily the least accomplished member of this cast coming in. At least Monica made the merge, and Kimmi was a memorable personality from the most popular season in the history of the show. Kelley, on the other hand, was the largely invisible other blonde from her season that went out sixth. She’s here because of a very savvy web presence developing a dedicated voting bloc, and because the show must’ve known her bad luck in San Juan del Sur was a missed opportunity. And she’s delivered in spades. She’s one of the most visible members of the cast, and has managed to play a strategic game while avoiding the pitfalls that doomed her equally aggressive alliance partners early on. She’s gone from “her?” to hero in the span of five episodes. Or, frankly, one episode.

John: It’s Kelley Wentworth. She’s found an idol, she’s been flexible in her alliances, and she’s already lined up a group to vote out Terry just in case Ta Keo ever loses immunity. She and Varner have shown that Survivor shouldn’t hesitate to bring back pre-merge boots that they think had untapped potential.

Emma: Woo! In that he has a little fight in him.

Mark: As far as between seasons, I’d have to say Kelley Wentworth (though improving from “shrug emoji” to anything, let alone “legit UtR threat to win”, is impressive). If I didn’t think Kompassion Kass was a giant front, I’d say her, since she should have been an early boot, but…yeah. Just in this game, though, the Cagayan Four have so far managed to avoid being booted and weaseled into positions of power. That will be deadly come merge time. And I have a feeling one of them (or more) will make the finale.

Matt: It kinda pains me to say this, since I don’t actually like Tasha Fox all that much. But I think the way she (and Savage) upended the Ta Keo advantage on Angkor was very deftly done, and then that she was able to control Abi enough to get her to vote out Varner next showed an ability to drive a vote and control her pawns. I don’t think she is going to do better than she did in Cagayan, but I think we saw some real strides by her to control the game socially that we didn’t see in Cagayan.

Andy	John	Emma	Mark	Matt	Readers
Kelley	Kelley	Woo	Kelley	Tasha	Kelley

Most Disappointing Player

Andy: It’s not like we didn’t see this coming. Kelly Wiglesworth‘s pre game material was laughable in how lifeless it was. So in that respect, it’s hard to call her disappointing. But it’s still her, largely because I thought her incongruent apathy to both the show and the modern game might lead to some interesting contrasts. Instead, she’s a complete waste of space.

John: Ciera and Keith have been invisible, which is disappointing. But I can’t blame that on them, since they’re winning so much that there’s no story to tell about them. So instead I’ll choose Kass, who has used what little airtime she’s had to be…nice? To other humans? Not cool, Kass. Not cool.

Emma: While I may have thought otherwise, most people expected Monica Padilla to pull a Parvati. But it’s still disappointing to see her flame out as soon as the game started for her.

Honorable mention: Ciera. Girl, where you at?

Mark: Tie between Andrew Savage and Abi-Maria. Same game, different year. Speaking of Abi, RIP Peih Gee, whose floating wasn’t enough to sustain Tropical Storm Abi. (Editor’s note: No ties! I pick Savage for his vote.)

Matt: Kass McQuillen is only the most disappointing player because I have such high hopes for ultimate troll Kass that seeing anything else reminds me of what I’m missing. That said, Kass is still the best character left in the cast. It’s just this nice Kass is disappointing when I was expecting a return of chaos Kass.

Andy	John	Emma	Mark	Matt	Readers
Kelly	Kass	Monica	Savage	Kass	Kelly

Best Goat

Who has positioned themselves so far to be the most useful goat?

Andy: For someone barely on the season, Wiglesworth sure is cleaning up with the hardware! Kelly is not someone you need to worry about gaining power and out manoeuvring you. If she ever got power, I’m unconvinced she’d be interested in using it. From exit interviews, the impression I get is that people out there like her, but none of them respect her (as a game player, that is).  She’ll be a useful camp member/vote that shouldn’t disrupt the game of anyone out there. And I highly doubt she’s gotten better at delivering speeches to juries in the past 15 years.

John: Remember in Borneo, when Kelly Wiglesworth got three votes at the end? That’s three more than she’d get in a final tribal council in this season, regardless of how good she’s gotten at choosing random numbers.

Emma: Literally anyone but Abi. Probably Keith Nale though. If that alliance of five sticks (which I’m sure it won’t), he has the least game out of everyone. Since that group has no real pairs (except maybe Kass and Joe, to my delight), everyone will want to bring him to the end.

Mark: Not Abi. Kelly Wiglesworth is more dispensable than goat, so perhaps Keith. He hasn’t done much in a dominant alliance, and could get easily outclassed at a Final Tribal with any of the big players.

Matt: Follows orders, no attempts to play strategy, no chance to win… ladies and gentlemen your Survivor Borneo runner up Kelly Wiglesworth! There is just no chance this cast rewards Kelly’s head-down, work hard, no strategy approach unless she is sitting next to like Abi and … maybe just Abi. Only unlike Abi, Kelly is reliable. Abi is a terrible goat because she will screw you. Kelly won’t.

Andy	John	Emma	Mark	Matt	Readers
Kelly	Kelly	Keith	Keith	Kelly	Kelly

Updated Winner Pick

Four out of the five us are without a winner pick, so why not take another crack at it with some actual data to back it up. Emma is also given the opportunity to change her pick if she’d like.

Note: Winner’s pick will serve as tiebreakers in the prediction standings. The person who predicts the winner earliest without changing wins the tiebreaker.

Andy: When I made my pick of Monica, my reasoning for her applied more or less equally to her and Kelley Wentworth. Both were the least threatening members of the cast from a past reputation/potential fame threatening standpoint, making them of the same phylum of past returnee winners Amber, Parvati, and Sandra. I chose Monica simply because I didn’t want to be accused of being a Kelley fan-boy, since I had pushed her so hard pre, during, and post SJDS. The raving fanboy bit is the other guy on the podcast’s gimmick. So I psyched myself out. Not this time though.

John: I think there’s a pretty clear top tier forming here in terms of narratives. And I’d assume that since Survivor pushed the second chance narrative so hard for this season, the winner is going to get confessionals and story arcs that show growth in his/her second chance. With that in mind, the leaders of the pack right now are Tasha, Jeremy, Spencer, and Kelley. That gives us two players each from Cagayan and San Juan del Sur. So if you’re keeping track at home, “new school” is dominating the “old school vs. new school” contest. And within that lead pack, I’ll give the slight edge to the one I’m least interested in seeing win: Tasha Fox. (And yes, I’m choosing her because I don’t want to jinx the people I actually want to see win.)

Emma: It’s a little tempting to change it for the sake of it, but I’m still confident in my homegirl Kelley. Plus if I changed it and she won I would hate myself. The important thing is that I’ve already done better than all the boys. That is always the most important thing.

Mark: Monica. (Wait…) There are a couple big players to choose from. Kass, Spencer, Kelley, but I think I’m going to go for Jeremy Collins. I see a bit of a JT-meets-Courtney vibe from him, and he has an idol. I’ll let Emma have Wentworth.

Matt: There are a few people I think are getting possible winner edits. One of them is Kass. I am not picking Kass… but I really, really, really want to pick Kass. Because if Kass was going to win, this would be her edit. But I think the winner is Jeremy. Again, there is really nothing separating Jeremy’s edit thus far from Kelley or Tasha or Kass or Spencer, but I think Jeremy has the most bonds with the most people and he has an idol. So I think compared to every other contender he is in the best position. So prepare yourselves for Jeremy to most certainly not win.

Andy	John	Emma	Mark	Matt	Readers
Kelley	Tasha	Kelley	Jeremy	Jeremy	Kelley

Zero Percent Club

Who do we think has zero percent chance of winning based on the first five episodes? Note: Once you’ve declared someone at zero percent, there’s no going back.

Andy: It’s hard for me to imagine one person on this show deciding that Abi-Maria deserves to be declared the winner, much less four or more. If Kelly Wiglesworth were the winner of this season, the show would’ve given us something, anything to build on. Ain’t happening.

John: If Abi-Maria is getting a winner’s edit, it’s the most amazing winner’s edit of all time. Woo has made progress since Cagayan, but he merely started from the bottom and now he’s here- somewhere above the bottom. And remember in the premier of this season where Kelly Wiglesworth said she thought about her loss in Borneo every day? I think that might have been true for about a week after Borneo aired- and only then so people would stop asking her about snakes and rats.

Emma: Abi. Abi-Maria. Ms. Gomes. Also Purple Kelly Sr.

Mark: Fire sale time: Abi, Woo, Keith, Terry, Savage, Wigles, Stephen, and Joe.

Matt: Abi, Kelly. I want to add Ciera, but until her tribe have a vote I can’t. But, yeah, Abi and Kelly can’t win.

Andy	John	Emma	Mark	Matt
Abi-Maria, Kelly	Abi-Maria, Kelly, Woo	Abi-Maria, Kelly	Abi-Maria, Andrew, Joe, Keith, Kelly, Stephen, Terry, Woo	Abi-Maria, Kelly

Note: No Zero Percent Club poll. For one, it’d be too hard to decide what percentage of votes qualified as the Reader choice for zero percent. For two, this could potentially provide a chance to spoil this week’s outcome. But feel free to leave your (unspoiled) choices in comments.

Predictions

	Andy	John	Emma	Mark	Matt	Readers
First Out	Abi-Maria	Kelly	Abi-Maria	Spencer	Spencer	Vytas
Second Out	Abi-Maria	Abi-Maria	Terry	Abi-Maria	Peih-Gee	N/A
Third Out	Abi-Maria	Kimmi	Joe	Jeremy	Monica	Savage
Fourth Out	Tasha	Varner	Abi-Maria	Abi-Maria	Abi-Maria	Abi-Maria
Fifth Out	Kimmi	Kimmi	Monica	Monica	Spencer	Monica
Score
Preseason Winner Pick	Monica	Varner	Kelley	Monica	Varner	Kelley
Quarter- Season Winner Pick	Kelley	Tasha	Kelley	Jeremy	Jeremy	Kelley