Time for the next edition of Survivor Analyst Russian Roulette, where the authors of this site are randomly assigned contestants from the upcoming season of Survivor: Game Changers and must give an honest assessment of what to expect from them. Next up: Cirie Fields.

The real world may not be in my favor, but the Survivor world sure is. There’s a new season of Survivor with a member of the Black Widow Brigade coming, and the fates have rewarded my loyalty to their cause.

If you don’t remember Cirie, I’m honestly surprised that you found your way to our site. She first graced our television screens with her presence in Survivor: Panama, aka Exile Island. At the ripe old age of 32, Cirie was part of the “older woman” tribe, which defied everyone’s expectations by losing the first immunity challenge. Cirie seemed to be the obvious first boot – she was scared of leaves, after all.

And there was something else that might have made it tough for her to fit in, something that has led many a castaway to being a first boot.

We often say not to play the post-merge game pre-merge, but if you’re at risk of being voted out, that’s not always an option. Seeing that she couldn’t convince the other women that someone else was weaker, she caused them to fear strength. “Timber” Tina Scheer knew her way around the woods, which should have made her a valuable asset in the early part of the game. Instead, Cirie turned her into a target.

Such ruthless strategy such as that, as well as the 3-2-1 Courtney vote farther down the line, should have made Cirie a villain in the eyes of the fans. But she is so. damn. likable. Truly, this cannot be overstated. Aras wanted to take her to the end! That would have been so stupid! But they were close and he would have been happy to see her succeed.

It was only natural that she was brought back for Fans vs. Favorites, where she started off by breaking our hearts and voted for beloved Yau-Man instead of Parvati – who had yet to become our queen. We soon forgot our heartbreak when Cirie went on to help form the greatest female alliance there ever was and will ever be.

Unfortunately, her physical game has always kept her from final tribal council, and in Heroes vs. Villains, she was quickly voted out (despite having a solid alliance) for being the extreme threat she is. Will her Survivor hiatus since Heroes vs. Villains lower her threat level and cause people to focus on the perceived bigger fish to fry, or will they want to avoid risking Cirie getting as close to the end as she did in her first two seasons?

Best Case Scenario

An all-returnees season with more than a few players who are weak in challenges could keep her weakness from being a concern. Cirie’s likability should help her to form an alliance, and if the group is full of winners and fallen angels like herself, it could keep them from turning on each other as threats. If she’s able to get to the merge with enough strategic meat shields, it’s possible that Cirie could finagle her way to the final four. Perhaps this time, she’s able to light her fire a little bit faster, and assuming there’s a final three, she’ll have finally made it. Of course, it depends on who she’s up against at the end, but it’s hard to imagine Cirie in front of the jury and not walking away with the million. Unless she’s sitting next to Sandra.

Worst Case Scenario

Cirie has never been good in challenges, and she’s well-known to be a strategic threat. It’s not hard to imagine her being the first boot. She almost was once before.

Most Likely Scenario

She will continue her trend of slaying our faves (As much as we want them to team up, can’t you see her getting Sandra out? And you know she wants revenge on J.T.) and have a decent alliance at the merge. But things get crazy at the merge with returning players, and old friends start mixing up alliances. Cirie was not known for hanging out with past players, but she is known for combining her irresistible charm with cutthroat strategy. An ally or two decide this might be their only shot, and they turn on Oprah in a gangster suit. Cirie then becomes the greatest Queen of Ponderosa that the world has ever seen.