Welcome to Survivor Analyst Russian Roulette, where the authors of this site are randomly assigned contestants from the upcoming season of Survivor: Game Changers and must give an honest assessment of what to expect from them. Next up: Caleb Reynolds.

From what we’ve seen, Game Changers has a very strong cast. So I was excited when we were drawing players for this assignment. Would I get to write about Tony? Sandra? Cirie?

Oh, you want me to talk about Caleb? Well then…

I don’t watch Big Brother (except for the few times I’ve left it on after Survivor), but Caleb Reynolds rose to fame in that show’s 16th season, placing fourth numerically and #1 controversially. He had an obsession with a castmate, had a stupid nickname (Beast Mode Cowboy), and espoused some less-than-enlightened views. So naturally, CBS wanted him on Survivor as well.

Caleb came into Kaoh Rong and immediately proved everyone nervous about his inclusion, well, “rong”. He got along well with all of his tribemates on the Beauty tribe. He performed especially well in challenges. And even formed a bromance with everyone’s favorite Season 32 player, Michele. Oops, sorry, I meant Tai.

Unfortunately, the SEG weatherman (Editor’s note: Survivor Entertainment Group, the production company) took the day off on Day 15, and the show nearly lost three players due to heat stroke. Scrambling for second place in a reward challenge, Caleb tried his best to win, but succumbed to the 115 degree weather and was medically evacuated after almost dying.

All that to say, we don’t really know a lot about how Caleb will play. He’s this season’s cast member with the least data to go on.

Best-case scenario

To beat his last performance on the show, all Caleb needs to do is A) not die and B) make it past the fourth episode. Not a high bar. So let’s say he continues his positive social game, plays off established relationships with other Kaoh Rong players, and proves to be the physical threat we know he is as a young, buff male player. Then what? He Beast Modes his way into the final tribal council with Tai, wins, and asks Tai to marry him at the finale.

Worst-case scenario

He gets attacked by Fijian wildlife and has to get medevac’ed once again. That, or he scorns Tai’s kiss and is voted out on Day 3.

Most likely scenario

Jokes aside, I can see Caleb making it past the merge while the former winners eat their own pre-merge. He then wins a few immunity challenges until he’s seen as a physical threat with an emotional backstory (see: Jay Starett), and is cut at the first chance the rest of the tribe gets.