Andy:  
Welcome everyone to this year’s edition of everyone’s favourite game: “John Guesses the Premises of the Oscar Best Picture nominees”. Despite that name telling you exactly what’s in the tin, a reminder that this is a game where John, who rarely has any knowledge of movies, tries to guess what a movie is about based on its name and his own assumptions on what an “Oscar nominated movie” is likely to be. We’ve got 10 movies to get through this year, so if you’d like to play along at home… read slowly?

John:  
I should start by saying I’m fairly certain I saw exactly one movie last year: Bob’s Burgers.

Andy:  
Which came out in 2023.

Matt:  
What’s the over/under this year?

Andy:  
Not a lot of gimmes in this year’s crop, so I’m going to set the over/under at 2.75 (reminder: we give out half point scores at times).

John:  
Feeling a lot of heat on that under.

Andy:  
I’m banging it.

Emily:   
What does banging it mean in this context?

John:  
Both things

Emily:   
Gross.

John:  
Because, as we all know, it can be two things.

Andy:  
Betting heavily.

John:  
Heavy betting was right there, Andy

Andy:  
Dammit!

Emily:   
Gross.

Matt:  
Once again I will be the optimistic one and take the over.

Andy:  
Alright, let’s get this underway and get this one out of the way…

Dune: Part Two

John:
I think I nailed this one the first time just based on vague knowledge of what Dune was and when it was written. I can only imagine the plot here is basically the same: Colonization is happening in an effort to get spice(?), and the general sentiment of the movie/story is “Maybe colonization is bad.”

Andy:
That was the first one.

Emily:
In fairness, he did guess they were basically the same.

John:
“Maybe colonization is terrible, actually”?

Matt:
Yeah I think it still counts
Judges?

John:  
Oh, and also this one stars noted college football nerd Timothee.
Gimme that point!

Emily:   
Oh, I just meant it makes sense his guess was the same because he thought they were the same.

Matt:  
Full points. He knew Timothee was in it.

Andy:  
I was unsure how tough on this I wanted to be. He has described Dune, which is probably enough for this game. But hasn’t gotten into the sequel, but I’m also not sure how he could with almost no knowledge of what was in the first one?

Probably best to just give the check mark and keep it moving.

John:  
If I described Top Gun 2 as “more bros flying planes”, I feel like that’s still correct.

Andy:  
Definitely correct for that one.

Matt:  
It counts I’ll explain why

Dune: Part Two is the sequel to Dune: Part One and completes the adaptation of the first book. The first movie was half the book, the second movie was the second half. Yes colonization is bad

John:  
Terrible, actually.

Matt:  
I’d say because both movies are adaptations of the same book it should count. But maybe when Dune Part Three comes out we might desire something else.

John:  
Is there a Dune part 3? Dune: Tokyo Drift?

Matt:  
There will be (it might be titled Dune Messiah).

John:  
Damn, I was close.

Andy:  
Speaking of something else…

Nickel Boys

John:  
My immediate thought was that nickel refers to nickel bag, and thus this is a reference to weed. The only other possibility to me is that the number 5 somehow describes the boys, but I can’t think of a movie plot that relates to “What if guys, but five of them” unless this is the story of the founding of Five Guys. And now I’m kind of torn about whether that would be a movie or not. I think I’ll stick to my gut and say that this is the story of some small-time drug dealers, who maybe just sell weed to college kids, and how their lives go in different directions when one of them is busted selling weed and the other managed to avoid jail. We see glimpses of their lives as they diverge, and one day they meet up again when the formerly arrested weed seller is looking for a job from un-arrested weed seller.

Emily:   
No points, although I actually don’t know what the title comes from because I’m seeing the movie this weekend. But I’m pretty sure no points.

Andy:  
No. But he did get surprisingly close to one element of the story. No points, but still.

John:  
Is it hamburgers?

Andy:  
FWIW, I also went to weed as a guess when I first heard of this movie.

Matt:  
I think the title is a reference to the poverty of the area and how its living costs are as cheap as nickels. (Editor’s Note: WRONG).

Emily:   
Nickel Boys is based on a novel of the same name about boys in an abusive reform school in Jim Crow era Florida. It’s notable for being shot from a first-person POV.

John:  
In my movie, the boys are definitely poor.

Matt:  
Yes they are definitely poor in this movie, or at least the school is for poor kids

Emily:   
Note that it’s an actual first-person POV, and not what people on TikTok seem to think POV means.

John:  
Or people on…a site that’s banned in FL.

Andy:  
No, those actually are POV.

John:  
Not all of them, my friend!

Emily:   
I hate you all.

John:  
I had strong artistic direction opinions on those.

Andy:  
Well, now I want to see where this will go…

The Substance

John:  
Damn, for such a short title I feel like this could go so many ways. Substance could be drugs, it could be personal depth, it could be some sort of sci-fi movie about discovering/creating some scientifically worthwhile substance. But also, this is the type of incredibly vague title where maybe a woman fucks a fish man or a kid is besties with Hitler or whatever.

Andy:  
I enjoy the movies that have entered the Lore of this game.

John:  
I’m also remembering that maybe one of these movies has a handjob, because I remember there was some reference to it and everyone assumed I would forget it.

Matt:  
We would never think you would forget about a handjob

John:  
I decided The Substance is a reference to steroids. I think this is the story of an athlete trying desperately to go professional because he has some background or personal story that requires the money that being a professional athlete would bring him. So this young athlete starts taking steroids, gets a professional contract, and then suffers some brutal career-ending injury that has lasting effects. The initial problem was solved by the money he made. But at what price?

Matt:  
Not bad. Totally wrong, but not bad.

Andy:  
A lot closer than I’d expect.

John:  
Is it a woman fucks Fish Hitler?

Matt:  
The Substance stars Demi Moore as an aging celebrity who takes an experimental or black market “substance” to stay young and instead it spits out a younger version of her (kinda trying to be a little vague here I guess). It goes very wrong. Also, it is apparently very gross.
So your sci-fi guess was actually kinda close, but that wasn’t what you went with.

John:  
Did they make a CGI Young Demi, or is it another actress?

Emily:   
It’s Margaret Qualley.   
Wait, there’s no way John knows who that is, huh?

John:  
I do not.

Matt:  
John doesn’t know who that is. She is Andie MacDowell’s daughter

Emily:   
But yes, younger actress who happens to be Andie MacDowell’s daughter and she was the daughter in The Leftovers.

Andy:  
He got that it was a professional entertainer who takes something to enhance/revitalize their career. Again, no points but still… in the ballpark. Or maybe in the parking lot of the ballpark?

John:  
It was in an area that paid $20 to park instead of $45.

Matt:  
Yeah if he had it as someone trying to maintain younger level of excellence I’d at least give a half point.

But instead, he had it as a nobody trying to become relevant.

Andy:  
We’re through 3 movies and John has 1 point. A good pace. Let’s move on.

A Complete Unknown

John:  
One of the best observations Andy has ever made about the Oscars is that they love movies that are about art itself, because it gives the judges a chance to feel like what they do is really difficult and valuable. With that in mind, I think this movie is about a young artist (and I’m being vague so I can get points for either writer or actress or musician) who is desperately trying to get their talent recognized by the people that matter: the people with money. In an effort to get their career in the arts to advance, they research the people in the industry who could advance their career and selectively seduce them in exchange for career advancement.

Matt:  
Can I ask a prompt?

Andy:  
Go ahead. I think we once again have a no, but was on the right path answer here.

Brad:  
Yes he was on his way in the first half and botched the second. For the readers, I am late, and I am taking the under

Matt:  
Because I’m giving you no points for this answer.
Do you think this movie was based off of a real person or a fake person?

John:  
I think this is a fake person, because no money person in the arts is going to be cool with green-lighting a movie where they are portrayed as manipulative via sex.

Andy:  
Your movie is a fake person. The actual movie features no sex for advancement, because it’s a Bob Dylan biopic.

John:  
I feel like Bob Dylan slept his way to the top.

Andy:  
But it is focused on the beginning of his career and him going electric.

Emily:   
Love that John already knew he was wrong but answered the question based on his incorrect guess.

Mark:  
Never change

John:  
You gotta commit.

Matt:  
That’s the beauty of the game!

John:  
Fortune favors the bold! Just not, like, in terms of points.

Andy:  
Speaking of a complete unknown…

Anora

John:  
I’m so annoyed that I got the artist part right and then whiffed on the rest for that last one, by the way.
Anora gives me fucking nothing. I hope this movie loses just based on a useless title.

I think Anora is the story of a woman named Anora, and her ongoing relationship with some kind of unconventional creature/technology. Anora is in love with a robot or fish-man or alien and the movie details how Anora’s life led her to develop a relationship that went from initial curiosity to a deep and lasting love. And if that’s the case, this might be the movie with a handy in it. So maybe Anora gives an HJ to her unconventional partner.

Matt:  
John, are you just hoping for another fish fucking movie?

John:  
Aren’t we all?

Emily:   
Regular Troy McClure here.

Brad:  
Anora IS a woman. Anora DOES has a relationship with not-quite a man. There IS sex but I don’t recall a handjob.

Matt:  
Anyway, John basically described Her there.

Brad:  
0 points.

John:  
I feel like based on the things Brad described, I got somewhere close.

Brad:
You didn’t.

Matt:  
Not enough Russians in your guess.

John:  
Is Anora the Russian woman that made the pee tape?

Brad:  
And my initial response was going to be that I loved Anora, and we need a good movie to win Best Picture this year.

John:  
Brad loves the pee tape biopic.

Mark:  
John complained the title gave him fucking nothing, and then voted for “fucking anything”.

Brad:
Anora is a stripper with a heart of gold who has a shotgun wedding with the son of a Russian oligarch. When the oligarch finds out what happens, he sends his men to force an annulment, which sends Anora’s husband on the lam and kicks off an adventure around New York trying to find him.

John:  
That feels like an unconventional relationship.

Andy:  
Where else but in Hollywood would a Russian failson hook up with a sex worker?
I like that over the years, John has shifted from “Oscar voters favour message movies and WWII movies” to “Oscar voters LOVE fish fucking”. That movie was a true game changer.

John:  
That’s why they get paid the big money, Andy. They alone have the creative minds to come up with these plots.
I think it was the combination of fish fucking and Lil’ Bestie Hitler. Like every year Hollywood wants at least one Weird Shit movie in the mix.

Andy:  
That was a tough one John. Not a lot to go with. Let’s move on instead to…

Emilia Pérez

John:  
Just someone’s full ass government name. Cool. (Editor’s note: !!!!)

Emilia Perez is the story of a girl who is born to someone a pregnant woman who made an incredibly treacherous journey to get across the border to the US. The mom escaped a human trafficker, braved some incredibly harsh terrain and conditions, and made it to the US, only to receive a helping hand from someone named Emily. Though Emily speaks no Spanish and the woman speaks no English, the woman names her baby Emilia in recognition of the kindness the benevolent white lady showed her. Shortly after giving birth to Emiliana, the trafficker finds the immigrant woman and captures her. Emily discovers that the mother has been taken, and adopts the baby as her own. Basically, this has The Blind Side vibes, but with illegal immigration.

And Emilia Perez grows up to be an attorney defending Dreamers from deportation.

Brad  
You lost the point as soon as you said “government name.”

Andy:  
Dang. John picked the Wrong Issue.

Emily:   
“a girl who is born to someone a pregnant woman”

Brad:
As people often do.

John:  
I needed to establish that the woman was pregnant during the border crossing.

Emily:   
I appreciate the call back to Emiliana.

John:  
Look, I can’t be expected to remember the name of the movie as I’m typing up this answer.

Matt:  
Reveal the answer!

Brad:
Emilia Pérez is the story of a Mexican cartel lord who undergoes a gender confirmation surgery and becomes the head of an NGO that searches for missing victims of drug-related violence (side plot, she takes the wife of one victim as her lover). This film is also a musical for some inexplicable reason. It is a bad film, a bad musical, and must be defeated at the Oscars.
Bonus question!
Emilia Pérez is nominated for Best International Film, representing which country?

John:  
This has strong Argentinian vibes.
(It doesn’t. I’m just guessing.)   
Oh wait, it’s a musical!

This is European.

Brad:   
Be more specific.

John:  
The Brits love a musical. I’ll go with them.

Brad:  
France.

Matt:  
I was really hoping he would get that part once he got to Europe.

Emily:   
I respect that he didn’t just guess Spain.

John:  
It was between England and France. And I figured the French were too busy with protests to make movies.

Emily:
If only…

Matt:
Still can’t believe he missed it so quick with the government name joke.

Also Emilia Perez is somehow the Oscar front runner.

Emily:
It has 13 nominations and I have not encountered a single person who liked it.

Andy:
1 for 6 so far.

Wicked

(Which is the name of the next movie, not my feeling on your score)

John:
Wicked did make it into my sphere. I actually didn’t hear anything about Dune 2, but I did hear about Wicked.
It’s a musical that got made into a movie. And it’s about the witches from Oz, and it’s got a bunch of songs that people in the theater love to sing along with and it’s a whole thing.

Matt:  
Yeah that’s a point.

Andy:  
Wicked and Dune are what pushed the line to 2.75

John:  
Reasonable. I didn’t realize this would be in the mix.

Brad:
As someone who is versed in queer media, I want to hold space for the fact that John got a fully earned point with no handicaps. I uh, didn’t know that was happening
John, you don’t know what that means, but the comment section gets it.

John:  
People in my life actually went and saw this movie, by the way. Not me, but people in my life.
And I was told that the in the book the witches maybe get some?

Emily:   
I do believe that’s the case.

Matt:  
Good for them.

John:  
Circles back to my Media is Horny For Non-Human Banging theory.

Emily:   
I mean, they are human though?

Matt:  
I mean they are humans… they aren’t banging the flying monkeys.

John:  
Do you know that for sure?
Did you read the books?

Matt:  
I hope they aren’t banging the flying monkeys.

John:  
If they did? That’s a nomination.

Mark:  
Well they are expanding the film for Part 2 so who knows,

Andy:  
That’s enough of movies John might have heard of…

I’m Still Here

John:
This feels like a biopic of some aging celebrity.
I’m fleshing out who this could be.

Oh! Is this the monkey man movie? There’s some biopic about a musician that nobody heard of, but for some reason the musician is a monkey in the movie? And people were like, “Yes, this is classy. This is art.” Just a straightforward ass biopic about some mildly famous musician, but it’s a CGI monkey in the lead role, so Oscar bait.

Andy:
Excellent guess!
…If this were A Better Man.

John:
Ah. Well, shit.

Matt:
John, we were gonna have Better Man as the bonus movie

John:
I remember you guys talking about some monkey movie.

Matt:
We were so excited to tell you about this movie as a bonus and you just guessed it early.

Andy:
You can tell him what A Better Man is about now if you want.

John:
The movie is called Better Man and it’s a biopic that’s NOT about Pearl Jam?

Emily:
I thought it was possible you remembered and they were like, no, no, John doesn’t know anything.
This was going to be my fish fucking moment and he just… tweeted it out.

John:
It was a remarkable year in that I somehow both paid attention when you guys were talking and then remembered doing so.

Matt:
Emily tell John all about A Better Man and then I guess also tell him about I’m Still Here.

Emily:
It’s just Better Man, Andy conflated it with A Different Man.

Andy:
I guess I can’t find a Better Man.

John:
There’s that PJ reference I wanted.

Matt:
I cannot believe you remembered this.

Emily:
John ruined the way I was going to reveal the plot, I don’t even know what I’m doing here anymore. But yes, Better Man is a biopic about Robbie Williams, a British pop star who is very famous everywhere but North America and is largely known in North America for never really crossing over here. And for some reason he’s portrayed by a CGI monkey, so it’s one of several monkey movies nominated for best visual effects. There is apparently still all the sex, drugs, and rock & roll one would expect from a musician biopic, but it’s a monkey.

John:
Did Handjob: The Movie not even get nominated?

Emily:
Perhaps most surprising is that people seem to actually really like Better Man, even when they don’t know who Robbie Williams is.

John:
So the monkey in this movie is fucking humans.

Emily:
Unlike the flying monkeys in Wicked.

John:
This basically fulfills the prophecy I laid out in my Wicked guess.
See? I know these Oscar voters.

Andy:
Better Man was not nominated for Best Picture.

John:  
Oh. Well, sure. Gotta not lean too hard into the stuff you’re into, lest people think you’re weird.

Matt:  
And now Emily will tell us about I’m Still Here. I mean I guess she will because none of us heard about it before this and none of us know what it is about.

Emily:   
According to my research, I’m Still Here is a Brazilian movie based on the true story of a dissident politician who was kidnapped and killed by their military dictatorship in the 1970s.

Andy:  
Which kinda sounds like he isn’t Still Here, but I’m guessing that’s metaphorical?

John:  
Yeah, really misleading title.

Matt:  
Maybe he lives on in the form of a CGI monkey?

Emily:   
I think his wife is maybe the main character, because that actress got nominated.
If you don’t like the plot description, take it up with Polygon.

Matt:  
I really didn’t expect this movie to be the one to derail things.

John:  
Knowing that CGI monkeys are a big thing this year is definitely going to fuck up my guessing. How many do we have left?

Emily:   
How many CGI monkey movies? None.

John:  
Oh right, I keep forgetting the CGI monkey didn’t get nominated for kink-shame reasons.

Matt:  
Yeah you can only fuck fish and get nominated for best picture, not mammals.

Emily:   
It got nominated for visual effects, as did several other CGI monkeys, but NOT Gladiator II. Which is good because their CGI monkeys were terrible.

John:  
Emily has CGI monkey opinions.

Andy:  
Hey, isn’t it weird that twice this year, movie makers were like “music biopics have gotten really stale, let’s do something different and make it animated!” but neither ever stopped to ask “okay, but why are we doing a biopic on this guy tho?”

Moving on…

Conclave

John:  
This feels sci-fi. I’m strangely confident in that.

Conclave is the story of a group of conspirators that plot to overthrow a government in a small and politically unstable country. I’ll say they’re Marxists, and this small conclave meets to plot both tactics and how they will run the government when they succeed in their coup d’etat. Once they take control of the government, the plans they had laid out go awry and they begin a lot of infighting that eventually leads to assassinations. So essentially the Russian Revolution, but not in Russia.

I clearly abandoned my sci-fi idea.

Matt:  
No.

Conclave is about a democratic process that actually works! Electing the next pope.

John:  
The rest of the world needs to learn that colored smoke just fucking works.

Matt:  
To be serious: Conclave is a movie about a fictional election for Pope. You have all the players, old racist vaping cardinal. Stanley Tucci as the progressive cardinal. John Lithgow as the scheming cardinal who has a scandal that made me google a word mid-movie. And Ralph Fiennes as the Cardinal in charge of the Conclave
Also commentary: this movie is a blast. So damn fun.

Brad:
Agreed.

John:  
I guess if it’s fun, they leave out a sexually assaulting cardinal.

Brad:   
See it for campy drama but also Tedesco’s fat cotton

Matt:  
There are many scandals, but I enjoy that they steer clear of exact parallels with real catholic scandals we are familiar with.

Andy:  
I thought John had a shot at this one, but wasn’t sure, hence the o/u of 2.75. I am a serious bookmaker. One shot left to beat it though…

The Brutalist

John:
Oh shit!
THIS IS HANDJOB MOVIE!
I think?

I’m like 85% confident this is handjob movie. But also, as excited as I am about remembering that, I am realizing that the handjob is actually probably not part of the plot in any way?

But this title could be going two directions. It could either play it straight, and it’s a reference to an art/design style. Or it could be like “This person is brutal and so he’s the brutalist, aren’t we clever?”
I am going to lean towards the former. I think this is the story of an architect in Soviet-era Poland whose job is desperately boring and unfulfilling because all he is allowed to do is design drab, functional, institutional-looking buildings. After years of hating his job, he is finally fed up and decides to design a library that would be a stunning centerpiece for his city. He decides to submit the plan, and ultimately he is killed for daring to step out of line.

The sad, persecuted artist thing that the Oscars judges love.

Matt:
Jesus Christ this is actually kinda close but also not?

Emily:
At minimum a half a point, I’m going to need to hear from the judges.

Andy:  
Half a point!
For architects and hand jobs.

Matt:
Yeah I gotta give something here. I’d say half a point for the plot and a quarter point for the handjobs.

John:
Gimme a hand for the handy.

Matt:
Look give me the .75! Let me push!

John:
The gamblers are so pissed if you made the house get all their money. They’re yelling “Rigged!” right now.

Andy:
I specifically went to quarters to avoid pushes.

John:
And yet, the game outsmarted you, Andy.

Matt:
No it’s fine, I’ll take the loss. I predicted he’d get half a point for The Brutalist and half for Conclave so I’ll once again lose for being optimistic.

John:
How many times must I disappoint you before you learn?

Matt:
Look man, you always come so close that I live in hope. Also one year I think you got four, so I dream of the repeat.

John:
I’m realistically only getting that high if it’s a year where a bunch of movies are established properties outside of moviedom.

Emily:
Okay so first, our readers might be wondering why John keeps calling The Brutalist “the handjob movie.” It’s because we shared this post on slack: https://bsky.app/profile/kumail.bsky.social/post/3lehucivxds2m
Kumail Nanjiani @kumail.bsky.social
The Brutalist is stunning but going forward I’ll be googling “how many handjobs does this movie have?” before choosing to watch with my parents.
Bluesky | Dec 29th

John:
Good call, Emily. Otherwise people are going to be very confused about why I was convinced this happens in an Oscar-nominated movie.

Emily:
Before getting into the plot, I’d like to mention that I think the handjob situation is overblown. There are actual sex scenes! The handjob isn’t even visible, but he does duck into a porn theater at one point and you see some good ol’ fashion mid-century porn.

John:
Although they’re just now reading this, so they were probably confused right up until now.

Matt:
I assume people are familiar with our work and are not confused at all.

John:
“Ah, Purple Rock. Those are the people that think movies are all about third base.”

Matt:
Also we get it, Emily has strong opinions about the prevalence of hand jobs in movies.

John:
That and CGI monkeys are basically all she talks about.

Emily:
I hear Better Man combines both.

Matt:
And that is why it got nominated for an Oscar! (In visual effects)

John:
Sorry for ruining your Better Man fun.

Emily:
I’ll never forgive you.

John:
Did we learn what happens in handjob movie?

Emily:
If you’d shut up I’d get to finish typing it and tell you.
So the actual plot of The Brutalist is a Hungarian Jew emigrates to Philadelphia after surviving the Holocaust. He finds out his wife also has survived—they both assumed they were killed—but she isn’t able to immigrate right away. He was in fact a renowned architect (who has built libraries!) and gets discovered by a capitalist who hires him for an ambitious project. The movie is very long and spans many years and ultimately it seems the American Dream ain’t so great.

Matt:
John, you basically got all the elements of this one, just scattered them throughout other guesses.

John:
I didn’t work Holocaust into anything, though. Probably because I don’t have a Twitter account.

Emily:
Fun fact probably only relevant to me: the director played Evan Rachel Wood’s brother in the movie Thirteen.

John:
That fact lacked fun for me.

Andy:
This has been fun, but as a wise man once said “It’s four o’clock, it’s got to stop”.

2.5 out of 10 for John this year, down from 3 last year.

Matt:
It was rigged! The judges had it out for John!

John:
Honestly better than I expected for this year.

Andy:
Yeah, you didn’t have the gift of Barbenheimer.

John:
At least I’ll get Wicked 2: Witches Fucking Monkeys next year.