Andy

Alright, welcome everyone to this year’s edition of “John Predicts the Premises of Oscar Best Picture nominees” (so well titled).

 

John

I do not remember how or why this started, but I do enjoy the tradition.

 

Andy

For those unfamiliar, John A) does not watch movies, B) in fact barely even hears about movies, and C) has no idea what was nominated for Best Picture yesterday. So we tell him the title and based on that, and his assumptions on what the Academy votes for, he tries to guess the premise of the film in question.

For this year, I set the over/under at 3.

 

Brad

Shouldn’t it be a decimal? Like 2.5?

 

Andy

Normally, yes. But we have been known to give out half marks. So a push is always in play.

 

Brad

Fair.

 

Andy

What’s everyone got? I’m taking the under.

 

Matt

I’m calling a push. House always wins.

 

Brad

Same

 

John

I should note that this year (well, 2023), I saw a movie in the theater for the first time since 2012. But it was The Super Mario Bros Movie, a cinematic masterpiece that simply had to be experienced in a theater.

Editor’s note: There were people hoping it’d get a Best Original Song nomination.

 

Emma

I was going to take the over when you set it at 2.5 but now I’m unsure.

 

Andy

Early betting pushed the line.

 

Mark

I’m gonna say 3.

 

Emma

I’ll take the over to be different.

 

Brad

And if folks at home have a gambling problem, we can link resources.

 

Matt

Now that everyone else is going high, I’m gonna change and take the under. I believe in John.

 

John

Thanks, boo.

 

Emma

Wait, I thought taking the over meant believing in John.

 

John

No. He’s betting on my lack of movie knowledge. Very bro move.

 

Matt

John gets it.

 

Andy

Alright, with that out of the way, let’s get this started with one of the 2.75 movies that I’ve actually seen this year. But before we do, a reminder to John: don’t try to be funny. That just ruins everything.

The Holdovers

 

John

The Holdovers is the story of three longtime employees of a company who remain on after the company is acquired by a notorious billionaire capitalist. His aim is to completely redefine what the company is, and he is hailed by the media as a genius who is capable of pulling this plan off. However, he is comically inept, and the three longtime employees are the only people who keep the company from falling into utter ruin. After months of seeing him turn their formerly great jobs into a nightmare, they devise a plan to get him to lose control of his own company. Through a series of elaborate schemes and corporate espionage, they finally succeed.

 

Andy

Not even close, but… kinda interested in this movie.

 

Matt

Surprisingly optimistic ending to John’s movie.

 

Mark

I’d watch it.

 

Andy

I think I’d cast Jason Sudeikis and Charlie Day in John’s movie.

 

John

I debated having them murder him in some way, but I feel like the studio owners would have notes.

 

Matt

Anyway Brad, give us the actual plot here.

 

Brad

Paul Giamatti, Da’Vine Joy Randolph, and Dominic Sessa are stuck at a boarding school over winter break. Together, they discover the power of human connection and the true meaning of Christmas.

 

Emma

Since those names mean nothing to him, I’d say a crotchety teacher, a grieving cafeteria cook, and a student.

 

 Matt

Also the title refers to the kids who can’t go home for the holidays.

 

Brad

So it’s zero points, obviously.

 

Andy

Also a good movie, even without the boss murder.

 

 John

A “true meaning of Christmas” movie is up for best picture? How woke. 

 

Andy

Alright, next up is: 

Killers of the Flower Moon

 

John

Oh, this one I’ve heard of. 

 

OH! I think I’ve got it. It’s Leo DiCaprio, maybe? He’s a white guy going to steal land from Native Americans because there is oil (or other such valuable commodity, but I think it’s oil) on that land. The movie is very long, and it maybe spans several decades of the process of the Native Americans being kicked off of their land so that it can be exploited for capitalist gains. That feels right. I’m confident on this one.

 

Emma

I’d say close enough, but kicked off would be nicer than the actual story. 

 

Andy

I also agree that this is close enough. And I’m already tearing up my under ticket.

 

Matt

Killers of the Flower Moon is the story of the Osage Indian Murders, a series of murders between 1910-1930 with the intent of taking the oil wealth the Osage tribe had. As depicted in the movie it usually involved marrying into the family and then killing the family to obtain those rights.

  

John

Somehow this story was and is not in Florida school history textbooks. Not sure why!

 

Andy

John starting things off going 1 for 2. Impressive! Let’s fix that.

The Zone of Interest

(True story: hadn’t heard of this movie until yesterday)

 

Mark

(Me neither.)

 

John

Now this is a title I can work with.

The Zone of Interest is the story of the makers of a dating app. They decide to make the app in order to collect data that will help them get dates. Their plan is to get a lot of users to sign up, watch how they interact and what sorts of things gain or lose interest from potential romantic partners. Once their app is a hit, they manipulate their own profiles in order to secure dates for themselves. But even with all of the information they’ve gathered, they are still unable to find love (perhaps they didn’t have the cholesterol to be out in these streets). Eventually, they realize that in working on the app together, they’ve fallen in love with each other.

 

Matt

Oh no.

 

Mark

If only. 

 

Matt

No points for this one.

 

Emma

The Zone of Interest is about Rudolf Höss (yes, that one) and his family living their best little idyllic life with a lovely garden while you hear the screams and see the smoke of the Auschwitz concentration camp on the other side of their wall.

 

John

Oh. That’s a very different vibe.

 

Matt

Just a bit.

 

Andy

I wanted to get a WWII movie out of the way early so John wouldn’t get half points just for assuming one had to be the WWII movie. This was strategy.

 

John

Well done. I applaud the effort.

  

Matt

Andy setting the line, and trying to game the line?

 

Andy

Seems unfair. Clearly the only time a bookie has ever tried to influence an outcome.

 

John

He consulted on the line, then stepped in to take over. He Doc Rivers-ed the line. I think/thought I know the WWII movie that will be in this list, though.

 

Andy

You almost certainly do.

 

Emma

I did tell Matt I thought that would keep you from guessing a Holocaust movie again.

  

John

It did indeed. I figured the WWII box was already checked.

  

Andy

Fuck it. Next movie:

Oppenheimer

  

John

Oh look, it’s the one I was expecting! Not even I can be unaware of the existence of this movie. The rough summary is that a man builds one of the most catastrophically destructive devices in history using physics and math. He also has sex with his wife, who is not a fish woman, and this was controversial for some reason. Then, the device that the man helped to build was used to immediately eliminate some human lives, ruin countless more, and render an entire area uninhabitable by human life for centuries to come.

 

Andy

I like that the bit in the middle shows what types of shit A) we talk about on Slack and B) John absorbs. 

 

John

Just trying to be thorough in letting you know what information pierced the veil.

 

Matt

But what was the man’s name?

 

John

Einstein.

 

Matt

Nailed it.

 

Emma

John, what is the number one rule of this game?

 

Andy

Reference the fish fucking movie every year?

 

John

I’m not going to not reference the fish fucking! Like Andy and the WWII movie, I have now gotten it out of the way.

 

Emma

Not to ruin this by trying to be funny. You see, by answering with “Einstein,” I believe he was attempting a joke. Anyway, should he lose points since the sex scenes weren’t with his wife?

 

Matt

No.

 

Andy

Spoilers, yeesh.

 

John

It would be quite the plot twist if they were with his husband.

 

Matt

Also Emma, he can make jokes after the earnest attempt, which is what happened here.

 

Andy

So, do we need to describe the premise or are we good here? Because full points are awarded.

 

Matt

Yeah it’s about Oppenheimer, let’s keep it moving.

 

John

If there’s some major detail I left out, feel free to inform me. But I feel like the nuclear bomb is kinda the thing.

 

Emma

I guess there’s the whole congressional hearing thing, that’s actually a big factor. Not saying he doesn’t get points, just adding on.

 

Andy

John is now 2 for 4. Next up:

Past Lives

 

John

Past Lives is the story of two people who emigrate separately to America in the early 20th century. One is a disgraced member of a European royal family, who fled to America to avoid being hounded by a scandal. The other is a poor stowaway who came to America without a penny, hoping to hustle his way to success. Over time, the penniless one manages to con his way into the higher rungs of American society by concocting an elaborate backstory about being a minor European royal. Eventually he meets the disgraced royal, who can easily expose his lies but instead falls in love with him. They marry, and when she eventually dies he inherits her European wealth, and moves back to Europe to become the man he never could have become had he stayed there living in poverty.

 

Matt

I like how John always goes the extra mile with these guesses.

 

Andy

I mean, no points but still pretty crazy that he got “emigrate to America”, which is a lot closer than I would’ve assumed (while also not quite being accurate).

 

Brad

Two Korean schoolchildren are separated when one moves to Canada. They reconnect over Facebook as adults. But they have grown into new people since the last time they saw each other, and the relationship is not the same.

 

John

Thus far, I feel like we haven’t had any of Andy’s favorite genre of “movies about art/artists.” It feels like one is coming. Also, “person found someone they used to know on Facebook” is not something I would have guessed as an Oscar-worthy premise. But, again, lady fucks a fish man happened.

 

Mark

The Oscars have range!

 

Emma

And lady fucks a fish man won.

 

Matt

Gotta show the audience something they’ve never seen before to win (like a lady fucking a fish man).

 

Andy

Next up:

Anatomy of a Fall

 

John

I feel like you could almost fit my The Holdovers plot into a movie called Anatomy of a Fall. It might even work better with that title?

 

Matt

Just gonna recycle it for efficiency’s sake?

 

John

No, I’ll give this one a shot.

 

Andy

For the record, “gonna recycle it for efficiency’s sake” is Hollywood’s modus operandi.

 

John

Anatomy of a Fall is about a brilliant artist who gains worldwide renown for their art, traveling to all of the rich places in the world to create and display their art. They are critically adored and have hundreds of artists wanting to learn from them. This movie explores how the brilliant artist exploits the mentor relationship and inflicts terrible abuse upon the people who only wanted to learn how to make beautiful art. The artist belittles, harasses, and is altogether monstrous towards their pupils, and the pupils are ignored when they speak out, as the art world and the capitalists with investment in the success of the artist refuse to let a few lives being ruined affect their money/love of art.

 

Brad

He’s tilting, folks.

 

Matt

No points. Brad, tell him what it is really about.

 

John

Damn! I thought for sure this had a “cancel culture” angle.

 

Andy

Wait… didn’t this movie get nominated last year?

Like, would we give him points if he gave that description for Tár?

 

John

If this is a story of fucking a non-human species…

 

Brad

A man falls out of a window to his death. His wife is accused of murdering him. The trial features testimony from their blind son, a tape recording, and the most memorable steel drum cover of 50 Cent in cinema history.

 

John

Stiff competition for that last one.

 

Emma

Chance for a bonus point: Name that song!

(Not a real bonus point.)

 

John

It’s gotta be “In Da Club”

 

Emma

Incorrect, it’s “P.I.M.P.” And I’ve played myself, because now it’s back stuck in my head.

 

John

On the bright side, it’s in mine too. And I feel like I can hear the steel drum cover despite never having heard it.

 

Andy

John is 2 for 6. All is well.

Next up:

American Fiction

One reason I set the line so low is that these are some pretty generic ass titles.

 

John

Anatomy of a Fall‘s title lined up really well with the plot. Which threw me off, because that doesn’t happen often. For reference, see the movie about fucking Auschwitz with the snappy title.

 

Andy

You were thrown off like (allegedly) that husband.

 

Emma

The zone of interest was an actual term the Nazis used to describe the area around concentration camps.

 

John

American Fiction feels like it could have a tie-in to fairly current events somehow. It’s not going to be about January 6, but it feels like that title could be used for a January 6 movie. Or maybe it could be related to book bannings and refusal to teach certain parts of American history. But since the last movie’s plot tracked closely with the title, I’m going to guess this one doesn’t.

American Fiction is the story of F. Scott Fitzgerald and his process of writing The Great Gatsby. We see him growing up and taking odd jobs, always convinced that he could be a great writer but never getting a break. Over several years, he writes, rewrites, and edits Gatsby dozens of times. The process is driving him mad, and he’s convinced he will never produce a version that truly satisfies his artistic vision. But when a publisher acquires his latest iteration and loves it, Gatsby gets published. His book gets distributed to the military as they deploy overseas, and he becomes one of the most celebrated American writers of his time. 

There’s even a little WWII angle in there. Just a whiff.

 

Mark

Definitely not white, I mean, right.

 

Andy

Or Wright, as it were.

 

Mark

A Black academic played by Jeffrey Wright struggles as a writer, and gets frustrated at the success of other Black writers (Issa Rae) who lean into stereotypes and vernacular for their success. His agent helps him write a book that panders to what white people think Black life is like, to much success. This success clashes with his family issues and domestic drama.

 

John

Issa is in an Oscar-nominated movie!

 

Emma

Issa is in two Oscar-nominated movies.

 

John

Love that for her.

 

Matt

Also John, your plot isn’t even remotely accurate to The Great Gatsby and F. Scott Fitzgerald. 

 

John

Artistic license, Matt!

 

Andy

I mean, that’s pretty true for Bohemian Rhapsody and Queen too.

 

John

But also, I was correct about it being about a writer! That’s gotta be worth something.

 

Andy

Worth nothing. Fiction is literally in the title. But still, it’s something. Not points, but something.

 

John

Oppenheimer was in the title.

 

John

Actually, “killers” was in Killers of the Flower Moon and I still whiffed on that.

 

Andy

John is now 2 for 7. Technically, the under is still alive but…

Barbie

 

John

I figured this one would be a nominee.

 

Andy

I’m ready to give you a point right now.

 

John

I’m obviously aware of the Barbie movie, but the challenge is in remembering what exactly the plot is. The standard should be higher to get the point on this one.

  

Matt

If John gets this wrong it is because he hates women.

 

John

High stakes.

 

Emma

There was great debate about how detailed you needed to be for this one.

 

John

I remember that the sad Twitter Guys and Reddit Guys and Ben Shapiro Guys were very upset by this movie. I think that was because Barbie envisions a world wherein women hold all the power and men are an afterthought/accessory to the success of women. I know that there’s at least a sighting of Earring Magic Ken. And I know that Ken has a smooth, flat crotch just like the Ken doll.

 

Slackbot

Smoother than “Smooth” by Santana featuring Rob Thomas of Matchbox Twenty?

 

John

Impeccable comic timing by Slackbot. 

 

Slackbot

I’m not up to dick today.

 

Emma

We forgot to turn off Slackbot! 

 

Slackbot

I got the morbs.

 

Andy

And we are blessed for it.

 

Matt

Perfect appearance

 

John

Is that enough of a plot summary?

 

Andy

It is for me.

 

Emma

Yes, I say he gets full marks. By which I mean one point.

 

Matt

Congrats John, you don’t hate women.

 

John

This is a relief. I’ve always been a fan.

 

Andy

I also would’ve accepted “The Lego Movie, but live action and pink”. 

 

Emma

But that’s because Andy does hate women.

 

Andy

You know what? I was being unfair. Here’s a more detailed description of the Barbie premise:

The idyllic, if reductive, life of the purposefully generic representation of a massively popular brand of toys is thrown into disarray when confronted with various incongruencies. This results in the generic brand representative to discover the “real world” where they meet Will Ferrell playing an impersonal businessman who doesn’t truly “get” the value of the toy in question. In the end, all is set right in the world of toys, which are truly special products that people should continue to buy in droves.

Nothing like The Lego Movie at all!

 

Matt

Also Ken discovers the patriarchy and loves it.

 

Andy

And horses!

 

John

Will Ferrell is in this?! Who doesn’t love the patriarchy, Matt?

Please tell me there’s a joke where he compares horse genitals to his own lack thereof.

 

Matt

3 for 8?

 

Andy

Indeed. This is intense for gambling purposes.

 

Matt

I’m mad I moved off my guess of a push.

 

Andy

Next:

Poor Things

 

John

I’m just excited to know that this movie will be released in Latin American countries as Pobrecitas (one of my favorite Spanish words).

Poor Things is the story of a group of Moroccan children. They provide for themselves and their family by begging because society provides them with no opportunities. One day, two of them convince a wealthy tourist that they are orphans- which they are not- and the tourist attempts to adopt them. The children admit to their lie, but the wealthy tourist is convinced she’s doing a great thing by offering to adopt them. She hires powerful lawyers and bribes Moroccan officials, then brings the children back with her to her own country. There, they live in splendor and misery, missing their friends and family but surrounded by a strange world of privilege and luxury they never imagined.

 

Andy

Incorrect. Normally, I’d suggest that you’re going for too many non-American stories for the Oscars, but we got three this year.

 

Emma

Weirdly could have become a side plot though, from a different lens. But yes, very incorrect. Poor Things is about Emma Stone as a reanimated corpse with Willem Dafoe as the Dr. Frankenstein type father figure. She runs off with Mark Ruffalo to traipse around Europe while discovering her sexuality and learning about humanity.

 

Andy

Can’t believe he didn’t get that.

 

John

So this is kind of a “fish woman fucks a man” story?

 

Andy

Look how far we’ve come! From fucking fish men to dead women.

 

John

The Oscars voters certainly have their kinks.

 

Matt

Oh boy, do not see this movie with your kids (or parents).

 

Andy

They balance it by nominating movies full of genital-less characters.

 

Matt

Ok John, we only have one more and you have exactly 3 points

 

Andy

This is intense. I think he has a chance.

Maestro

  

John

There is no way this is about a conductor. I’m not going to fall into that trap. Also, I think there was a movie last year about a conductor (I think it was that Tor movie you referenced earlier). And there’s no way there’s enough going on with conductors that they get two straight years of Oscar-nominated movies. Instead, Maestro is a movie about NBA general manager Daryl Morey, who gains fame for his ability to quantify the value of players and run teams in accordance with his principle that certain players provide quantifiable value. He goes from a back-room stats nerd to getting invited to Harvard conferences and front office jobs with more than one NBA team. There is no mention of his beef with China. Also, this movie won’t be released in China.

 

Andy

Do you really think there’d be an NBA movie that we hadn’t talked about?

 

John

Ah, I didn’t consider that.

  

Andy

IT’S A PUSH!!! THE LINE-MAKER IS A GENIUS!!! THE HOUSE WINS!!!

 

Emma

Maestro is, in fact, about a conductor.

 

John

God dammit!

 

Andy

Bwahahahahaa, what a choke job. Might’ve gotten half a point if he didn’t second-guess himself. 

 

Matt

The Doc Rivers of guessing movie premises.

 

John

What does this conductor do that’s worthy of a movie?

 

Matt

Maestro is about Leonard Bernstein and his wife. Bradley Cooper wears a prosthetic nose to play the Jewish Leonard Bernstein which I have a lot of thoughts about but won’t air them here.

 

Emma

He sounds like his nose is plugged the whole time and I don’t know enough about Leonard Bernstein to know if that’s what he sounded like or if it’s because of the prosthetic.

 

John

Ok, that conductor is kinda famous.

 

Matt

He’s in a rock song! One you have probably heard.

 

John

I have!

 

Emma

They play that bit of the song! But don’t address it at all!

 

Andy

John was at the free throw line with a chance to win it and pulled a Nick Anderson.

 

Andy

He had an easy kick to win it and pulled a Gary Anderson.

 

Andy

He… did any Andersons strike out famously? I’m out of references here.

 

Andy

He didn’t get nominated like a Wes Anderson… no, that doesn’t work.

 

Matt

Wes did get nominated for short!

 

Matt

Gotta end it here, no bonuses, too perfect this way

 

Andy

Alright, so that’s another year. John finishes with 3 out of 10, or 1 out of 8 if you remove the two absolute gimmes.