Andy
Alright, welcome everyone to this year’s edition of “John Predicts the Premises of Oscar Best Picture nominees” (so well titled).
John
I do not remember how or why this started, but I do enjoy the tradition.
Andy
For those unfamiliar, John A) does not watch movies, B) in fact barely even hears about movies, and C) has no idea what was nominated for Best Picture yesterday. So we tell him the title and based on that, and his assumptions on what the Academy votes for, he tries to guess the premise of the film in question.
For this year, I set the over/under at 3.
Brad
Shouldn’t it be a decimal? Like 2.5?
Andy
Normally, yes. But we have been known to give out half marks. So a push is always in play.
Brad
Fair.
Andy
What’s everyone got? I’m taking the under.
Matt
I’m calling a push. House always wins.
Brad
Same
John
I should note that this year (well, 2023), I saw a movie in the theater for the first time since 2012. But it was The Super Mario Bros Movie, a cinematic masterpiece that simply had to be experienced in a theater.
Editor’s note: There were people hoping it’d get a Best Original Song nomination.
Emma
I was going to take the over when you set it at 2.5 but now I’m unsure.
Andy
Early betting pushed the line.
Mark
I’m gonna say 3.
Emma
I’ll take the over to be different.
Brad
And if folks at home have a gambling problem, we can link resources.
Matt
Now that everyone else is going high, I’m gonna change and take the under. I believe in John.
John
Thanks, boo.
Emma
Wait, I thought taking the over meant believing in John.
John
No. He’s betting on my lack of movie knowledge. Very bro move.
Matt
John gets it.
Andy
Alright, with that out of the way, let’s get this started with one of the 2.75 movies that I’ve actually seen this year. But before we do, a reminder to John: don’t try to be funny. That just ruins everything.
The Holdovers
John
The Holdovers is the story of three longtime employees of a company who remain on after the company is acquired by a notorious billionaire capitalist. His aim is to completely redefine what the company is, and he is hailed by the media as a genius who is capable of pulling this plan off. However, he is comically inept, and the three longtime employees are the only people who keep the company from falling into utter ruin. After months of seeing him turn their formerly great jobs into a nightmare, they devise a plan to get him to lose control of his own company. Through a series of elaborate schemes and corporate espionage, they finally succeed.
Andy
Not even close, but… kinda interested in this movie.
Matt
Surprisingly optimistic ending to John’s movie.
Mark
I’d watch it.
Andy
I think I’d cast Jason Sudeikis and Charlie Day in John’s movie.
John
I debated having them murder him in some way, but I feel like the studio owners would have notes.
Matt
Anyway Brad, give us the actual plot here.
Brad
Paul Giamatti, Da’Vine Joy Randolph, and Dominic Sessa are stuck at a boarding school over winter break. Together, they discover the power of human connection and the true meaning of Christmas.
Emma
Since those names mean nothing to him, I’d say a crotchety teacher, a grieving cafeteria cook, and a student.
Matt
Also the title refers to the kids who can’t go home for the holidays.
Brad
So it’s zero points, obviously.
Andy
Also a good movie, even without the boss murder.
John
A “true meaning of Christmas” movie is up for best picture? How woke.
Andy
Alright, next up is:
Killers of the Flower Moon
John
Oh, this one I’ve heard of.
OH! I think I’ve got it. It’s Leo DiCaprio, maybe? He’s a white guy going to steal land from Native Americans because there is oil (or other such valuable commodity, but I think it’s oil) on that land. The movie is very long, and it maybe spans several decades of the process of the Native Americans being kicked off of their land so that it can be exploited for capitalist gains. That feels right. I’m confident on this one.
Emma
I’d say close enough, but kicked off would be nicer than the actual story.
Andy
I also agree that this is close enough. And I’m already tearing up my under ticket.
Matt
Killers of the Flower Moon is the story of the Osage Indian Murders, a series of murders between 1910-1930 with the intent of taking the oil wealth the Osage tribe had. As depicted in the movie it usually involved marrying into the family and then killing the family to obtain those rights.
John
Somehow this story was and is not in Florida school history textbooks. Not sure why!
Andy
John starting things off going 1 for 2. Impressive! Let’s fix that.
The Zone of Interest
(True story: hadn’t heard of this movie until yesterday)
Mark
(Me neither.)
John
Now this is a title I can work with.
The Zone of Interest is the story of the makers of a dating app. They decide to make the app in order to collect data that will help them get dates. Their plan is to get a lot of users to sign up, watch how they interact and what sorts of things gain or lose interest from potential romantic partners. Once their app is a hit, they manipulate their own profiles in order to secure dates for themselves. But even with all of the information they’ve gathered, they are still unable to find love (perhaps they didn’t have the cholesterol to be out in these streets). Eventually, they realize that in working on the app together, they’ve fallen in love with each other.
Matt
Oh no.
Mark
If only.
Matt
No points for this one.
Emma
The Zone of Interest is about Rudolf Höss (yes, that one) and his family living their best little idyllic life with a lovely garden while you hear the screams and see the smoke of the Auschwitz concentration camp on the other side of their wall.
John
Oh. That’s a very different vibe.
Matt
Just a bit.
Andy
I wanted to get a WWII movie out of the way early so John wouldn’t get half points just for assuming one had to be the WWII movie. This was strategy.
John
Well done. I applaud the effort.
Matt
Andy setting the line, and trying to game the line?
Andy
Seems unfair. Clearly the only time a bookie has ever tried to influence an outcome.
John
He consulted on the line, then stepped in to take over. He Doc Rivers-ed the line. I think/thought I know the WWII movie that will be in this list, though.
Andy
You almost certainly do.
Emma
I did tell Matt I thought that would keep you from guessing a Holocaust movie again.
John
It did indeed. I figured the WWII box was already checked.
Andy
Fuck it. Next movie:
Oppenheimer
John
Oh look, it’s the one I was expecting! Not even I can be unaware of the existence of this movie. The rough summary is that a man builds one of the most catastrophically destructive devices in history using physics and math. He also has sex with his wife, who is not a fish woman, and this was controversial for some reason. Then, the device that the man helped to build was used to immediately eliminate some human lives, ruin countless more, and render an entire area uninhabitable by human life for centuries to come.
Andy
I like that the bit in the middle shows what types of shit A) we talk about on Slack and B) John absorbs.
John
Just trying to be thorough in letting you know what information pierced the veil.
Matt
But what was the man’s name?
John
Einstein.
Matt
Nailed it.
Emma
John, what is the number one rule of this game?
Andy
Reference the fish fucking movie every year?
John
I’m not going to not reference the fish fucking! Like Andy and the WWII movie, I have now gotten it out of the way.
Emma
Not to ruin this by trying to be funny. You see, by answering with “Einstein,” I believe he was attempting a joke. Anyway, should he lose points since the sex scenes weren’t with his wife?
Matt
No.
Andy
Spoilers, yeesh.
John
It would be quite the plot twist if they were with his husband.
Matt
Also Emma, he can make jokes after the earnest attempt, which is what happened here.
Andy
So, do we need to describe the premise or are we good here? Because full points are awarded.
Matt
Yeah it’s about Oppenheimer, let’s keep it moving.
John
If there’s some major detail I left out, feel free to inform me. But I feel like the nuclear bomb is kinda the thing.
Emma
I guess there’s the whole congressional hearing thing, that’s actually a big factor. Not saying he doesn’t get points, just adding on.
Andy
John is now 2 for 4. Next up:
Past Lives
John
Past Lives is the story of two people who emigrate separately to America in the early 20th century. One is a disgraced member of a European royal family, who fled to America to avoid being hounded by a scandal. The other is a poor stowaway who came to America without a penny, hoping to hustle his way to success. Over time, the penniless one manages to con his way into the higher rungs of American society by concocting an elaborate backstory about being a minor European royal. Eventually he meets the disgraced royal, who can easily expose his lies but instead falls in love with him. They marry, and when she eventually dies he inherits her European wealth, and moves back to Europe to become the man he never could have become had he stayed there living in poverty.
Matt
I like how John always goes the extra mile with these guesses.
Andy
I mean, no points but still pretty crazy that he got “emigrate to America”, which is a lot closer than I would’ve assumed (while also not quite being accurate).
Brad
Two Korean schoolchildren are separated when one moves to Canada. They reconnect over Facebook as adults. But they have grown into new people since the last time they saw each other, and the relationship is not the same.
John
Thus far, I feel like we haven’t had any of Andy’s favorite genre of “movies about art/artists.” It feels like one is coming. Also, “person found someone they used to know on Facebook” is not something I would have guessed as an Oscar-worthy premise. But, again, lady fucks a fish man happened.
Mark
The Oscars have range!
Emma
And lady fucks a fish man won.
Matt
Gotta show the audience something they’ve never seen before to win (like a lady fucking a fish man).
Andy
Next up:
Anatomy of a Fall
John
I feel like you could almost fit my The Holdovers plot into a movie called Anatomy of a Fall. It might even work better with that title?
Matt
Just gonna recycle it for efficiency’s sake?
John
No, I’ll give this one a shot.
Andy
For the record, “gonna recycle it for efficiency’s sake” is Hollywood’s modus operandi.
John
Anatomy of a Fall is about a brilliant artist who gains worldwide renown for their art, traveling to all of the rich places in the world to create and display their art. They are critically adored and have hundreds of artists wanting to learn from them. This movie explores how the brilliant artist exploits the mentor relationship and inflicts terrible abuse upon the people who only wanted to learn how to make beautiful art. The artist belittles, harasses, and is altogether monstrous towards their pupils, and the pupils are ignored when they speak out, as the art world and the capitalists with investment in the success of the artist refuse to let a few lives being ruined affect their money/love of art.
Brad
He’s tilting, folks.
Matt
No points. Brad, tell him what it is really about.
John
Damn! I thought for sure this had a “cancel culture” angle.
Andy
Wait… didn’t this movie get nominated last year?
Like, would we give him points if he gave that description for Tár?
John
If this is a story of fucking a non-human species…
Brad
A man falls out of a window to his death. His wife is accused of murdering him. The trial features testimony from their blind son, a tape recording, and the most memorable steel drum cover of 50 Cent in cinema history.
John
Stiff competition for that last one.
Emma
Chance for a bonus point: Name that song!
(Not a real bonus point.)
John
It’s gotta be “In Da Club”
Emma
Incorrect, it’s “P.I.M.P.” And I’ve played myself, because now it’s back stuck in my head.
John
On the bright side, it’s in mine too. And I feel like I can hear the steel drum cover despite never having heard it.
Andy
John is 2 for 6. All is well.
Next up:
American Fiction
One reason I set the line so low is that these are some pretty generic ass titles.
John
Anatomy of a Fall‘s title lined up really well with the plot. Which threw me off, because that doesn’t happen often. For reference, see the movie about fucking Auschwitz with the snappy title.
Andy
You were thrown off like (allegedly) that husband.
Emma
The zone of interest was an actual term the Nazis used to describe the area around concentration camps.
John
American Fiction feels like it could have a tie-in to fairly current events somehow. It’s not going to be about January 6, but it feels like that title could be used for a January 6 movie. Or maybe it could be related to book bannings and refusal to teach certain parts of American history. But since the last movie’s plot tracked closely with the title, I’m going to guess this one doesn’t.
American Fiction is the story of F. Scott Fitzgerald and his process of writing The Great Gatsby. We see him growing up and taking odd jobs, always convinced that he could be a great writer but never getting a break. Over several years, he writes, rewrites, and edits Gatsby dozens of times. The process is driving him mad, and he’s convinced he will never produce a version that truly satisfies his artistic vision. But when a publisher acquires his latest iteration and loves it, Gatsby gets published. His book gets distributed to the military as they deploy overseas, and he becomes one of the most celebrated American writers of his time.
There’s even a little WWII angle in there. Just a whiff.
Mark
Definitely not white, I mean, right.
Andy
Or Wright, as it were.
Mark
A Black academic played by Jeffrey Wright struggles as a writer, and gets frustrated at the success of other Black writers (Issa Rae) who lean into stereotypes and vernacular for their success. His agent helps him write a book that panders to what white people think Black life is like, to much success. This success clashes with his family issues and domestic drama.
John
Issa is in an Oscar-nominated movie!
Emma
Issa is in two Oscar-nominated movies.
John
Love that for her.
Matt
Also John, your plot isn’t even remotely accurate to The Great Gatsby and F. Scott Fitzgerald.
John
Artistic license, Matt!
Andy
I mean, that’s pretty true for Bohemian Rhapsody and Queen too.
John
But also, I was correct about it being about a writer! That’s gotta be worth something.
Andy
Worth nothing. Fiction is literally in the title. But still, it’s something. Not points, but something.
John
Oppenheimer was in the title.
John
Actually, “killers” was in Killers of the Flower Moon and I still whiffed on that.
Andy
John is now 2 for 7. Technically, the under is still alive but…
Barbie
John
I figured this one would be a nominee.
Andy
I’m ready to give you a point right now.
John
I’m obviously aware of the Barbie movie, but the challenge is in remembering what exactly the plot is. The standard should be higher to get the point on this one.
Matt
If John gets this wrong it is because he hates women.
John
High stakes.
Emma
There was great debate about how detailed you needed to be for this one.
John
I remember that the sad Twitter Guys and Reddit Guys and Ben Shapiro Guys were very upset by this movie. I think that was because Barbie envisions a world wherein women hold all the power and men are an afterthought/accessory to the success of women. I know that there’s at least a sighting of Earring Magic Ken. And I know that Ken has a smooth, flat crotch just like the Ken doll.
Slackbot
Smoother than “Smooth” by Santana featuring Rob Thomas of Matchbox Twenty?
John
Impeccable comic timing by Slackbot.
Slackbot
I’m not up to dick today.
Emma
We forgot to turn off Slackbot!
Slackbot
I got the morbs.
Andy
And we are blessed for it.
Matt
Perfect appearance
John
Is that enough of a plot summary?
Andy
It is for me.
Emma
Yes, I say he gets full marks. By which I mean one point.
Matt
Congrats John, you don’t hate women.
John
This is a relief. I’ve always been a fan.
Andy
I also would’ve accepted “The Lego Movie, but live action and pink”.
Emma
But that’s because Andy does hate women.
Andy
You know what? I was being unfair. Here’s a more detailed description of the Barbie premise:
The idyllic, if reductive, life of the purposefully generic representation of a massively popular brand of toys is thrown into disarray when confronted with various incongruencies. This results in the generic brand representative to discover the “real world” where they meet Will Ferrell playing an impersonal businessman who doesn’t truly “get” the value of the toy in question. In the end, all is set right in the world of toys, which are truly special products that people should continue to buy in droves.
Nothing like The Lego Movie at all!
Matt
Also Ken discovers the patriarchy and loves it.
Andy
And horses!
John
Will Ferrell is in this?! Who doesn’t love the patriarchy, Matt?
Please tell me there’s a joke where he compares horse genitals to his own lack thereof.
Matt
3 for 8?
Andy
Indeed. This is intense for gambling purposes.
Matt
I’m mad I moved off my guess of a push.
Andy
Next:
Poor Things
John
I’m just excited to know that this movie will be released in Latin American countries as Pobrecitas (one of my favorite Spanish words).
Poor Things is the story of a group of Moroccan children. They provide for themselves and their family by begging because society provides them with no opportunities. One day, two of them convince a wealthy tourist that they are orphans- which they are not- and the tourist attempts to adopt them. The children admit to their lie, but the wealthy tourist is convinced she’s doing a great thing by offering to adopt them. She hires powerful lawyers and bribes Moroccan officials, then brings the children back with her to her own country. There, they live in splendor and misery, missing their friends and family but surrounded by a strange world of privilege and luxury they never imagined.
Andy
Incorrect. Normally, I’d suggest that you’re going for too many non-American stories for the Oscars, but we got three this year.
Emma
Weirdly could have become a side plot though, from a different lens. But yes, very incorrect. Poor Things is about Emma Stone as a reanimated corpse with Willem Dafoe as the Dr. Frankenstein type father figure. She runs off with Mark Ruffalo to traipse around Europe while discovering her sexuality and learning about humanity.
Andy
Can’t believe he didn’t get that.
John
So this is kind of a “fish woman fucks a man” story?
Andy
Look how far we’ve come! From fucking fish men to dead women.
John
The Oscars voters certainly have their kinks.
Matt
Oh boy, do not see this movie with your kids (or parents).
Andy
They balance it by nominating movies full of genital-less characters.
Matt
Ok John, we only have one more and you have exactly 3 points
Andy
This is intense. I think he has a chance.
Maestro
John
There is no way this is about a conductor. I’m not going to fall into that trap. Also, I think there was a movie last year about a conductor (I think it was that Tor movie you referenced earlier). And there’s no way there’s enough going on with conductors that they get two straight years of Oscar-nominated movies. Instead, Maestro is a movie about NBA general manager Daryl Morey, who gains fame for his ability to quantify the value of players and run teams in accordance with his principle that certain players provide quantifiable value. He goes from a back-room stats nerd to getting invited to Harvard conferences and front office jobs with more than one NBA team. There is no mention of his beef with China. Also, this movie won’t be released in China.
Andy
Do you really think there’d be an NBA movie that we hadn’t talked about?
John
Ah, I didn’t consider that.
Andy
IT’S A PUSH!!! THE LINE-MAKER IS A GENIUS!!! THE HOUSE WINS!!!
Emma
Maestro is, in fact, about a conductor.
John
God dammit!
Andy
Bwahahahahaa, what a choke job. Might’ve gotten half a point if he didn’t second-guess himself.
Matt
The Doc Rivers of guessing movie premises.
John
What does this conductor do that’s worthy of a movie?
Matt
Maestro is about Leonard Bernstein and his wife. Bradley Cooper wears a prosthetic nose to play the Jewish Leonard Bernstein which I have a lot of thoughts about but won’t air them here.
Emma
He sounds like his nose is plugged the whole time and I don’t know enough about Leonard Bernstein to know if that’s what he sounded like or if it’s because of the prosthetic.
John
Ok, that conductor is kinda famous.
Matt
He’s in a rock song! One you have probably heard.
John
I have!
Emma
They play that bit of the song! But don’t address it at all!
Andy
John was at the free throw line with a chance to win it and pulled a Nick Anderson.
Andy
He had an easy kick to win it and pulled a Gary Anderson.
Andy
He… did any Andersons strike out famously? I’m out of references here.
Andy
He didn’t get nominated like a Wes Anderson… no, that doesn’t work.
Matt
Wes did get nominated for short!
Matt
Gotta end it here, no bonuses, too perfect this way
Andy
Alright, so that’s another year. John finishes with 3 out of 10, or 1 out of 8 if you remove the two absolute gimmes.
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